Burundi: Beyond Nkurunziza's Third Term Bid

"The masses have decided to take into their own hands the destiny of the nation to remedy this unconstitutional environment into which Burundi has been plunged.

"The masses vigorously and tenaciously reject President Nkurunziza's third-term mandate... President Pierre Nkurunziza has been relieved of his duties. The government is overthrown.".......Maj Gen Godefroid Niyombareh

These statements signalled a purported Coup d’état in which former Burundian army chief, Major General Godefroid Niyombareh announced the overthrow of the government of Pierre Nkurunziza in May 2015. This came at a time of heightened political tension amid waves of massive protests following the declaration of intent by the Burundian leader to seek another term in office.

Pierre Nkurunziza’s first ascent to the helm of affairs in Burundi was in 2005 following the promulgation of a power sharing constitution. He was elected by a two-thirds majority of the legislature for a five year term as the Country’s first post transition president. Under the terms of the Constitution, subsequent presidential elections were to be decided by Universal suffrage.

Upon the expiration of his term in 2010, President Pierre Nkurunziza sought re-election for another term in office. This time, he was elected by universal suffrage and then in 2015 as his term in office expired, he sought another term following a declaration of intent in April 2015. This ignited a coup de theatre; starting with mass protests against the President’s decision in which over 70 people lost their lives and  about 500 wounded as demonstrators clashed with police in the weeks following the President’s declaration. 

Burundian's Protests President Nkurunziza's Third term bid
Source: bbcnews.com

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), over 100,000 fled across the Burundian border to neighbouring countries in anticipation of more unrest to come. Their fears are not farfetched as the deal that brought Pierre Nkurunziza to power was upon a peace deal long started since 1995 and brokered by late former Presidents Nyerere of Tanzania and Mandela of South Africa following years of civil conflict and genocides between the Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups. In fact, not until 2005 did the last of the rebel factions sign the peace accord that calm returned to Burundi though there were skirmishes between government forces and FNL rebels in later years before their final disarmament.

Backed by a favoured ruling by the Constitutional Court, though there were reports of judges being intimidated President Nkurunziza asserted his claim that he had only served only one term and that his first five year tenure in office did not count as he was not elected by Universal suffrage. Following initial mass protest against the president’s decision, the army seized the initiative to seize power in a coup d’état which ultimately failed.

Undeterred by mass protests, opposition boycotts and condemnation from the international community chiefly among which was the African Union who for the first time refused to send observers to monitor elections in a member country, President Nkurunziza merely approved election postponement by a few weeks from the scheduled dates but went on to contest, winning by 70% of votes cast.

President Nkurunziza enroute the polling booth to cast his ballot
Source: bbcnews.com

The last Burundian elections reverberated fears of another simmering unrest in an already conflict laden Great Lakes region. Ever since the 2005 accord which brought Pierre Nkurunziza to power, there has been a clamp down on the opposition and media restriction on political matters. Like the 2015 elections, the 2010 Burundian Parliamentary Presidential elections was boycotted by the opposition. The only difference this time was the opposition to President Nkurunziza’s bid from his own party men and loyalists; Vice-President Gervais Rufyikiri had to go on exile after opposing President Nkurunziza's plans for a third term; Intelligence chief, Major General Godefroid Niyombareh, himself a right hand man to the President during the hey days of the CNDD FDD rebellion attempted to overthrow the government following his opposition to the president’s bid and his subsequent sack from his post in the Army.

President Nkurunziza set for another term in office
Source:bbcnews.com

Amidst opposition, President Nkurunziza has been sworn in for another term in office and Burundians face an uneasy calm. Though most of the dissenting voices against the President from and without his circles are either in exile or behind bars, a rebellion led by them against the government is very unlikely given the wariness of all international actors to the continuing conflict in the Great lakes region. However, President Nkurunziza might not have a smooth ride at manipulation should he seek another term upon the expiration of this current term. That will entail a constitutional amendment which might tamper with the fragile peace the Country currently enjoys. Judging from the mass protests that greeted the president’s current term bid, another tenure elongation will ignite another conflict which might set the Tutsis who have now been long out of power against President Nkurunziza’s Hutu ethnic group which has been in power since 2005 and will continue till 2020.