MAN O MANDELA: HIS LEGACIES!

“I was made, by the law, a criminal, not because of what I had done, but because of what I stood for, because of what I thought, because of my conscience...

...During my lifetime I have dedicated myself to this struggle of the African people...

...I have fought against white domination, and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony and with equal opportunities. It is an ideal which I hope to live for and to achieve. But if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die.” 

Born Rolihlahla Mandela in Mveso, Transkei, South Africa 18^th July 1918 and fondly called Madiba and Tata; he is popularly known as Nelson Mandela.

This personality has increasingly held the world in frenzious awe since the latter half of the 20^th century up until his recent demise. In deed and in death, his memory is enmeshed in notorious fame whose embers will blaze a continual trail for generations unending to refer and learn.

Away from the troubled past incited by the governance misdemeanours of most of Africa’s independence leaders - who wittingly threw the tantrums into the post independence political cosmos of their countries. Thus, plunging Africa  to that continent laden with coup d’etats, civil wars, debt, ethnic upheavals, infrastructural decay and underdevelopment. Nelson Mandela’s legacies from the anti-apartheid struggle to the post apartheid era South Africa, leaves a sterling example in what is meant of exemplary quality leadership.

Driven and motivated by the passion of what he believed ought to be, he sought freedom and equity for all races in South Africa and never for once balked at his desire even when he was President of South Africa from the dominant race that has once been sore oppressed.

In life and in death, Mandela is ever eulogized as a beacon of morality in leadership, and his influence is always evoked at the slightest opportunity when needed - as seen recently in South Africa’s world cup bid success.

Amidst the adulatory eulogies showered the memory of Mandela, it is important to note and learn from the deeds of Mandela. Viz;

v  His ardent and fervent determination in the face of crushing opposition to his ideology and movement. Instead, his resolve increased and remained stronger than ever. Though sentenced to life imprisonment and destined to die, he said:

“Prison itself is a tremendous education in the need for patience and perseverance. It is above all a test of one’s commitment.” 

 

While in prison, he wrote his famous biography- Long walk to freedom (while not yet free) and above all, he bagged a long sought law degree amid providing a formidable leadership to his fellow prisoners while in prison.

v  He had a clear sense of his ideology and its ideals. Himself being an African Nationalist, he became fully absorbed into democratic socialism as he began his long term romance with politics in the ANC and governance in South Africa. Though during his struggles, he had alliances with western maligned communism and some absolute leaders in Gaddafi which made him being labelled as a terrorist by western governments. His clear ideological drive overtime won the hearts and minds of all those who once evil branded him as seen in eulogies poured out at his demise. This is a far cry from the inept ideological tendencies dominating the African political cosmos today. This has reduced politics and governance to a trivial ground for scores settling, unideologically driven cross carpeting, and money bag governance in most African Countries.

v  Even when at the helm of affairs as South Africa’s President, he distributed governing powers. His deputy, Thabo Mbeki concentrated on domestic issues while Mandela concentrated on foreign matters; and amid the cheers, he quit when the ovation was loudest after one term in office. This is a far cry from the bad exemplary governance of previous Africa independence leaders before him who turned their countries to one party states; and most had to be dislodged by coup d’etats, civil upheavals and sometimes bloody civil wars whose scars still lace the Africa political cosmos till this day. It is however sad to note that the governing ANC seems to be diverting from the exemplary ideals of Mandela leadership legacies

v  He loved his country to a fault. He never sought to leave or retire abroad; as such, he never had some foreign holdings of loots stashed abroad. No wonder he died at home. Some other African leaders would have retired/sought medical treatment abroad, died abroad and be flown home on demise.

v  He never had a stable family life. From three marriages (two ending in divorce), his personal life sometimes cast a shadow on his glorious credentials. His first marriage broke due to his wife’s irreconcilable ideology with his as she left him before he returned from one of his numerous incarcerations. Unable to forgive his adulterous  long term wife and companion, one may hold that moment with thoughtful grief as they barely had five years together (though spent in transit in and out of prison) before his eternal 27yr incarceration which could have had testing moments in the life of young Winnie. Some say he forgave his oppressors but couldn’t forgive his wife! In that he showed his mortal side in the face of secular knight ship and sainthood.

“I hate race discrimination most intensely and in all its manifestations. I have fought it all during my life; I fight it now, and will do so until the end of my days.”

In life and in death, Nelson Mandela remained an embodiment of political pietism and in that; he attained the status of a secular saint.

Whilst basking in the euphoria of having a man worthy of historical reference from Africa, it is most important for all who care to reminisce his memory to think and practice his deeds. Maybe such could be called Mandelasm (no calls for a political movement though)!

Our march to freedom is irreversible. We must not allow fear to stand in our way.” 

“I can rest only for a moment, for with freedom come responsibilities, and I dare not linger, for my long walk is not yet ended.”

"There is nothing like returning to a place that remains unchanged to find the ways in which you yourself have altered"---

RIP Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela (18/7/1918- 5/12/2013)

SOUTH SUDAN: The PANGS OF NATIONHOOD!

Joyous scenes in Juba heralding the Independence of South Sudan on 9th July 2011
Source:BBCNEWS

On the morn of 9^th July 2011, Mother Africa went through the throes of natality and South Sudan was born! Joyous crowds greeted that day in Juba, Bor, Rumbeck and Wau. Much joy was found from the Upper Nile, Jonglei; East, West and Central Equatorial States, all of which will now make up the world’s newest country.

It has been a long bloody journey to independence. From the initial independence of the Sudan in 1956, the peoples of the South of Sudan had fought a war against domination and Arabization. Dubbed Africa’s longest contiguous/running civil war, a truce/peace deal was signed in 1972 giving a break from the Anya Nya rebellion that had began about 1956.

Yet the underlying issues that led to rebellion not being addressed, the South (dark skinned, non-Arab and mostly Christian) culturally and ethnically different from the North; against a governing/dominating Pro-Arab Muslim North, the South in 1983 once again descended into a rebellious conflagration with the government sending John Garang (a Southern army officer) to quell the rebellion.

John Garang

Garang instead allied with the mutinous forces and forged the Sudan’s Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA), the armed wing of the Sudan’s Peoples Liberation movement (SPLM); thus launching a full scale second round of rebellion. Beginning in 1983, the war raged amid series of peace moves and finally a Comprehensive Peace Agreement deal was done in 2005, ending 22yrs of war. Under the deal, South Sudan was to be allowed self government for a six year period culminating with a referendum for self determination in the sixth year.

For all the troubles of John Garang, he didn’t live to enjoy the dividends of the peace deal as he died in a plane crash in July 2005; barely 3months after signing the deal. A crack seemed to simmer among the ranks of the SPLA/SPLM. Turning a rebel movement into an active political/governing force over a territory that has only known war, pillage, cattle rustling, marginalization and underdevelopment was no easy deal. The South made up of the Dinka-Ngok, Nuer, Shilluk amongst several other minorities began to simmer in ethnic tensions.

Though evident during the rebellion in the defection Peter Gadet and his militia from the SPLA to the side of the Sudanese government, a power struggle was waiting to happen after the death of charismatic Garang; with the highly educated Riek Machar and militarily vibrant Peter Gadet (both from the Nuer ethnic group) against a less educated military commander in Salva Kiir (from the Dinka ethnic group).

The lines of differences between the actors was bridged before the referendum which ensured independence. Plagued by ineptitude and corruption, the SPLA government made a poor start failing to learn lessons from older independent nations. Peter Gadet once more defected from the SPLM, kick starting a rebellion in the troubled Unity/Jonglei region which was flanked by General George Athor. These differences played into Sudan and barely months after independence, South Sudan and Sudan were at odds. Sudan occupying disputed Abiyei and South Sudan occupying the oil  fields of Heglig (Panthou). The world watched as both sides verbally sabre rattled at each other with President Omar Al-Bashir calling the South Sudanese government ‘Insects’ that must be flushed out.

With both sides struggling to contain internal rebellions, all out conflict was certainly not an option and overtime the conflict seemed to progress by proxy as both governments accused each other of supporting their respective rebel groups. Oil ceased to flow from South Sudan and both governments became cash strapped.

Tensions continued to smolder in South Sudan; defections, discontents culminating in the sack of the entire cabinet by President Salva Kiir. Then came heightened violence referred to as a coup attempt.

Once again, South Sudan is split along the lines of previous rival rebel movement- Peter Gadet and Reik Machar seeming to align against the main stream SPLM lead by Salva Kiir.

For years, these have fought side by side against the government of Khartoum and united by the cause of getting an improved status quo for the Southern Sudanese. Though there have been splinters in the past, upon getting their desired aim, it is up to the power players in South Sudan to make their nation great.

Like most African countries, independence leaders seem united at the onset fighting a common enemy in Colonialism. Upon independence, it has been the custom of most independence leaders to stifle opposition, promote nepotism, ethnic tensions and ultimately cement their places in power by declaring a one party state.

Such has been the pangs and throes of independence in Africa which has relegated most African Countries to third world statuship…. Miles behind the Asian Tigers who started the independence journey with most African Countries.

It is sad to note this trend in South Sudan. Barely 2yrs into independence, the country is embroiled in the same circle of violence familiar with SubSaharan Africa.

A Nation was born in South Sudan; young, ruddy and potent! She must learn from her elders else another failed state in the making! And who says secession is a solution to Africa’s ethnic/cultural mangle?..... see South Sudan!

The Central African Republic—ANOTHER FAILED STATE IN THE MAKING

In the eyes of the International Community, Countries such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq are readily referred to as failed states (states where the central government cannot exercise effective control/governance beyond the walls of the seat of government). However, to this unwholesome list, several countries do in a sense compete for notified positions on the list! One of such countries is the Central African Republic- A landlocked country located at the heart of Central African, it is bordered by Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo.

Map of The CAR
Source:http://www.mapsofworld.com/central-african-republic/

The throes of the CAR can be traced to the have begun with the first coup d’etat in that country by army commander, Jean-Bedel Bokassa in 1965. In the face of economic turmoil, he stirred the country to through a tyrannical part defined by adept kleptomaniacism. He was ultimately ousted in a coup in 1979 and a circle of coups, civil discontent and unrests ravaged the country in successive trends since then.

A defining moment to the current abject crumble into a failed state began when President Ange-Felix Patasse sacked the army chief, General Francois Bozize in 2001 after accusations of his involvement in a coup d’etat. Ever since then, the story of the CAR turmoil has been woven around these two main actors backed by foreign armed groups which includes the armed forces of Chad, Libya, France, South Africa and Congolese rebel groups.

In a turn of rebellious events, General Francois Bozize stirred a rebellion invading from the North and ultimately pushed Ange-Felix Patasse out power when his forces swept South into Bangui in 2003 despite Libyan backing of CAR’s government forces. Bozize immediately installed himself into power as the head of a newly constituted transitional government and as subsequent plenipotentiary head of government after general elections in 2005.

Plagued by heavy flooding and yet to recover from the humanitarian crises as a result of the Bozize lead rebellion, peace in the CAR faced another torment as fresh rebellion/ banditry attacks resumed in the North of the country led by Abdoulaye Miskine of the People's Democratic Front. The woes of the CAR increased when the Darfur conflict in Sudan spiralled into the CAR. The vast jungles of the CAR provided a haven for refugees and armed groups in the conflict and joining them in their new found home was the Itinerant fugitive Ugandan rebel group in the Lord’s Resistance Army. In the wake of this trend, the CAR also played host to the Ugandan army who claimed to be in pursuit of the fugitive LRA group.

As such, the government of the CAR led by Francois Bozize exercised no real authority over the country save for the capital. Adding to this lax in governance, the CAR was faced with strike actions/protest from various arms of the public work force as the government complained of adept bankruptcy and hence could not meet salary demand. Even as these events raged, another rebel insurrection began and continued intermittently between 2006 and 2011.

And then in 2012, a rebel coalition called Seleka led by  Michel Djotodia who was a loyalist to ex-president Ange-Felix Patasse began to deliver the final blow to the Bozize led regime. Undeterred by peace deals and cabinet offers, the Seleka coalition forced Bozize out of CAR in March 2013 and Michel Djotodia seized power. Not even the firepower of the AU forces led by the South African Army could stop the onslaught though there was alleged Chadian backing to the rebel efforts as the French army secured the country’s main airport.

The elegy of rebellion in the CAR has taken a toll on the country. Though it has numerous natural resources in diamonds, rare earth metals and a lush jungle of rainforest, the government is cash strapped and adeptly bankrupt. The numerous fugitive armed groups roaming the countryside have in their cadre child soldiers as their frontline members.

CAR child soldiers and frontline members of armed groups
Source:http://ow.ly/gxNI2

The central government is effectively powerless to administer the country. Having a ragtag defence force and law enforcement agencies with numerous armed groups (foreign and local) roaming the countryside, the security situation is a no-no.

The activities of these armed groups are having an unwholesome effect on the CAR residents especially in terms of pillage, rape and forced conscription; hence the disbandment and criminalization of the Seleka rebels ironically by its leader, Michel Djotodia. It won’t be surprising if elements of this group begin another full scale rebellion pushing the current president out of power.

The advance of the Seleka rebels into Bangui in March 2013
Source: REUTERS

As the world watches and debate the Arab spring especially in Egypt and Syria, another country is sliding the Somalia way. Failure to nip the malignant CAR crises will result in:

•       A haven for rebel groups who can threaten the peace of Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, DRCongo, Uganda and the wider continent of Africa
•     A field for proliferation of light and heavy weapons
•   Another failed state draining the world in humanitarian and peace keeping initiative
•    Another haven for religious extremist/terrorist cells as seen especially in recent religious incited clashes.

The UN and AU should strengthen their peace resolves in the CAR and save Africa the pain of having another failed State!

THE WHITE ELEPHANT AT TINAPA

The Vision of Tinapa is described as.

...to play a catalytic role in establishing Calabar as a trade and distribution hub in West Africa while at the same time providing a unique tourism experience that will inform the growth and enhancement of the tourism sector in Calabar, Cross River State and Nigeria………..

Of all the tourist attractions in the South-South geopolitical zone, Tinapa has been top of my interest ever since I got to know it from media reports in 2007. In fact, during my undergraduate years, it has been a destination for ‘edutainment tourism’ of several student groups from my school. Neglecting the far-flunged distance from the South West, it has been testified of as a place worth visiting. Having the opportunity to do my national service at neighbouring Akwa Ibom State, I vowed to undertake the edutainment tourist trip to Tinapa and 10^th August 2013 afforded me the opportunity. For the first time in my life, I set foot on Calabar, destination Tinapa!

As a student of Architecture, I was held in awe by the flawless construction detail of the infrastructures, the judicious planning and zoning and in all, the serenity of the environment. However, after touring the site, I couldn’t help being encumbered in thoughts at the dull economic atmosphere of the so-called ‘free-trade zone’. For God’s sake, Tinapa didn’t exist as a natural phenomenon! It is man-made and at that, it must have cost billions of dollars to construct! I wondered why in about six years of its existence/commissioning, it has failed to live up to its bidding. As one who has lived through the hustles and bustles of Lagos, Tinapa should live up to the Lagos standard in terms of commercial activities. A visual negation of this thought made me probe further into the origins of Tinapa.

Commissioned 2^nd April 2007, the Tinapa free trade & resort was built with the intention of combining business and recreational functions with duty free shopping. An intriguing aspect of the Tinapa story is that it was meant to complement the concomitant Calabar Free Trade Zone due South of Tinapa. Built by the Cross River State government under the Donald Duke administration, Tinapa was meant to facilitate international commerce of goods and service devoid of nebulous custom clearance gridlocks. As such, goods (especially for export) alongside retail shopping are meant to sell at Tinapa void of taxes and custom clearance. Just like a free port, it will then attract traders from the international and local markets to ply their trade at Tinapa. As a resultant, one cannot underestimate the economies of scale in terms of support facilities and activities that would emanate from such an economic/commercial hub. And for sure this would help to awaken and standardize the industrial ingenuity of the South Eastern heartlands of Aba, Onitsha, Umuahia and Enugu, as products from these industrial hubs would find a ready international market in Tinapa. Thus, another Chinese Shanghai or HongKong and Middle Eastern Dubai would be right at our door steps at Calabar for Nigerians, West Africans and Africans!

However what did I see at Tinapa?               

•  Commercial dry emporiums thinly laden with goods for sale

Unoccupied shop space

•      Most sales shops unused/unoccupied
•    Closed down studio, cinema and casino

The Tinapa studios (closed down)

•   Commercial dull ancilliary/relaxation facilities like the fisherman/craft village, games arcade etc
• Only the amusement/water park could be said to be fully put to use. However, the revenue could soar gargantuanlly if economic activities peaked at Tinapa

The amusement/relaxation park at Tinapa

Commercial Hubs at Tinapa begging for commercial activity

After these observations, my thoughts followed up with some questions which apparently were maligning the Tinapa dream:

If Tinapa was built with full cooperation of financial instutions, the Cross River State government and the blessing of the Federal government as seen in the commissioning of the project by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, why the lag on the part of the Federal Government in granting/licensing Tinapa in full economic swing?

With the hyper economic/commercial activities at the Lagos Port, and the Oil based export tendencies of ports in the Rivers/Delta axis, Calabar port and Tinapa provides another corridor for the decongestion of the Lagos port, whilst facilitating the rejuvenation of the erudite industrial capabilities of the South East which in turn will boost tourism to spectacular attractions within the zones. For all the potential Tinapa affords, it has been laid at the altar of neglect by the Federal government (since it has the plenipotentiary powers to sanction the operation of Free port zones).

Upon my departure from Tinapa, I pondered on this---

“Tinapa is set to become a world-class integrated business resort. Located on the Calabar River, and contiguous to the Calabar Free Trade Zone (Calabar FTZ), Tinapa is the realisation of an exciting dream - the first integrated business and leisure resort in Nigeria.”

Yes! Tinapa is infrastructurally set but wilfully neglected! For the first time in the 21^st century, Nigeria seemed to have made a stride in pawning on her economic potential and just when it seemed done, the dream seems to be going moribund!

Tinapa wasn’t built for cobwebs and lichens; neither was it built to occupy a vacuum of desolation.

Who then will slay the white elephant at Tinapa to awaken the sleeping economic giant in Nigeria?

.

SECURITY ISSUES IN NIGERIA: quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

In one of his Satires, 1^st Century Roman Poet, Decimus Iunius Iuvenalis also referred to as Juvenal asked in a rhetorical manner... ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’  translating in English to mean ‘who guards the guards?’ Amid the security challanges facing the nation, a question that readily comes to mind is ‘who guards the guards?’  In our contemporary world where crime has reached extreme sophistication, it requires extreme sophisticated policing to tackle.

Like every nation, Nigeria is bedeviled with numerous criminal activities ranging from armed robbery, fraud, insurgency, ritual killings among numerous others. Although it is the desire of every peace loving citizen to have a sane society, crime like cancer is ever present and can be either benignant or malignant; thus, making it is the onus task of a country’s security apparatus to curb or quell crime. Nigeria, like any other country in the world has a security apparatus postioned against internal and external intrusion.

Ever since independence, Nigeria has been plagued by ethnic conflicts, civil war, religious riots, electoral violence, armed robbery and of recent, Boko Haram insurgency. In recent times, the intensity of these conflicts has caused the government to deploy special military apparatus commonly known with different acronyms such as JTF (Joint Task Force) in the Niger Delta, ORO (Operation Restore Order) in the North East, STF (Special Task Force) around Jos and trouble spots around the country.

In Nigeria, violent crimes most times follow a common trend; firstly an aggrieved hatred against a targeted group of people and then targeted or sporadic killings with the security apparatus watching helplessly. Action from the government most times only comes after several lives have been lost. Of recent, the following security issues have once more raised the question ‘who guards the guards?’, viz;

*        The bombing incident at the Eagles Square amid the Jubilee anniversary celebration of Nigeria’s Independence. Independence celebrations have been confined to the Presidential villa since then

*        The attack on the Police Anti-Robbery Squad Headquarters in November 2012

*        The suicide bombing attack at the Nigeria Police Force Headquarters at Abuja in June 2011

*        The Suicide bombing attack at the Nigeria Police Force Zone 1 headquarters at Kano in January 2012

Among several incidents these stand out and call for the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’  …. Who guards the guards?

The Sucide attack on the Nigeria Police Force Headquarters on 16th June 2011; an apparent attempt on the life of the Inspector General of police....quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Around the country, the sight of armed soldiers manning roadblocks alongside policemen is a common scene. Whilst this give an additional security assurance to the common man, it must be noted that Soldiers are not meant to man road roadblocks; the sight of gun totting soldiers reminds one of no other thing but war! The police and other allied internal security apparatus are responsible for internal security whilst the Armed Forces (Army, Navy and Airforce) are responsible for the nation’s external security. While within the Nation’s borders, the place of the Armed Forces is at their respective barracks else a national emergency.

The current internal security situation in Nigeria calls for concern and proactive measures to tackle. All this while, the Nigerian government has been apparently reactive in tackling security issues. In tackling Nigeria’s internal security issues, the Police force must be repositioned instead of constantly involving the Armed Forces.

SUGGESTIONS

Tackling the Security issues from the proactive angle calls for a massive use of intelligence not incessant roadblocks! A coordinated cooperation among Nigeria’s Intelligence apparatus; the CID (Criminal Investigation Department), the SSS (State Security Service) and that of the Armed Forces (the DMI-Director of Military Intelligence) is required. This brings to question the issue of a National database which has not been tangibly pursued by the government for some time. This will help keep track of every citizen of the Nigerian State.

Another Proactive measure which the government must consider is arms control. It is common knowledge that the country is illegally awash with sophisticated weaponry or how else will one explain the arms with the Boko Haram militants (who initially started their insurgency with machetes), the Niger Delta militants and several armed terror unleashing gangs around the country? Implementing a stiff border control and small arms licensing is the key to curtailing the trend. One must not also forget that some of these armed gangs are armed by politicians during elections. In this case, nobody must be above the law.

Whilst the issue of State police is debateable among Nigerian circles, Community Policing should not be ignored. Instead of ragtag vigilante groups patrolling the neighbourhoods, a case of community policing will help bridge the security gap within neighbourhoods. This also involves the use of local intelligence and CCTV monitoring instead of roadblocks. As such, Community Policing can come under a command of an effective local government structure and help provide security cover in the deep hinterland and curb the excesses of Herdsmen.

In all, the reactive measures put in place by the government in quelling the Boko Haram insurgency is quite plausible. However, one cannot but wink at the re-insurgency of the Boko Haram gangs highlighted in targeted killings of local vigilante groups even after the Armed forces have claimed to have swept out the insurgency. A candid implementation of community policing measures will help abate the trend.

In conclusion, the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’ …who guards the guards must be answered by the Nigerian Security apparatus. It is embarrassing when the Nigerian internal security situation degenerates to that of failed states and above all, it is most embarrassing when Military barracks, police stations, prisons, police headquarters are attacked with impunity. It does leave one pondering the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’ …who guards the guards? There surely must be an answer to this!

THE INTRIGUES OF CROSSING THE REDLINE IN SYRIA

THE INTRIGUES OF CROSSING THE  REDLINE IN SYRIA

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized...... "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."... Barack Obama (20th August 2012)

Just over a year ago, the President of the United States was quoted as saying this in an interview. At that time, the Syrian scenario was evolving from that of a protest/uprising to a full scale civil war. After series of wrangling, debates, resolutions and counter resolutions at the UN security council, the Syrian crises was allowed to rage devoid of significant external inference from the Great Powers (US, UK, France, Russia and China).

The Syrian case is so peculiar to the world and the entire Middle East that it cannot be ignored, if not for any reason one surely stands out—Syria’s Chemical weapons. Estimated to be about the world’s fourth largest, Syria’s Chemical weapon arsenal hosts a contingent of deadly nerve agents such as Sarin, VX, Mustard gas and Tabun. Believed to be having been acquired in the 1980’s, Syria hosts this weaponry as a deterrent to Israel among other reasons.

The advent of the 20^th century changed the face of warfare in the globe forever! From the use of the general purpose machine gun (GPMG) which mows down an advancing infantry to the use of ballistics which can effectively engage non neighbouring countries in war; not to talk of the advancement in military avionics; in contemporary warfare parlance, warfare is now either conventional or non-conventional.

After the use of Chlorine gas by German forces during WW1, the world has witnessed a rapid advancement and deployment of weapons of mass destruction in terms of Nuclear, Thermonuclear, Chemical and Biological weapons—all termed nonconventional weapons. Though all weapons (conventional & nonconventional) are deadly, nonconventional weapons have a long term adverse effect on the planet and indeed could aid the genocide of sections of humanity or the human race as a whole! This fact has prompted the great powers (US,UK, Russia, France and China) to sign and ratify several treaties banning the use and spread of non conventional weapons.

On the question of Chemical weapons, drafted in 1992 and ratified by 65 countries, the Chemical Weapons Convention prohibits the use of Chemical weapons. Of 189 UN member states which are parties to this, Syria and six other UN member nations are not parties to the convention.

Apparently hosted as a deterrent to Israel’s superior conventional military and undeclared nonconventional weapons arsenal, Syria’s Chemical arsenal is scattered across the country and with the Syrian uprising turning to a full blown civil conflict, there were fears that Syria’s Chemical assets could fall into wrong hands or that the Syrian army could use them against opposition forces. In July 2012, the Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi stated that the Syrian armed forces would never use chemical weapons against domestic opposition, while remarking that these weapons remained available for use against "external aggression". However, ever since then, reports/ rumours of the use of Chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict began to filter in.

SOME INCIDENCES

*        In September 2012, there were reports that the Syrian military had restarted testing of chemical weapons at a base on the outskirts of Aleppo.

*        On 23^rd December 2012, Al Jazeera released unconfirmed reports that a gas attack killed 7 civilians in the rebel-held al-Bayyada neighbourhood of Homs.

*        On 19 March 2013, new unconfirmed reports surfaced that SCUD missiles armed with chemical agents may have been fired into the Khan al-Asal district in Aleppo and the Al Atebeh suburbs of Damascus, with both sides accusing each other of carrying out the attack.

Among several confirmed and unconfirmed incidences, the one that triggered international attention was an alleged Chemical weapons use during intense fighting between government forces and rebels at Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus on 21^st August 2013.

Amid the accusations of Chemical weapon usage, the Syrian government has reiterated that’s its arsenal was in safe hands. However, it’s baffling when the Syrian government accuse rebels of using chemical weapons. Does it mean the rebels have access/ capability to use these weapons? Who can be held responsible or credible in the face of these accusations and counter accusations?

When Barack Obama made the ‘RED LINE’ statement after several frustrations at the UN Security Council, he was seen by some as merely throwing tantrums! After all, past United States interventions save that of Kosovo has resulted in unstable states in the end- Iraq, Afghanistan, and most recently Libya are perfect examples. He certainly won’t want another US mess in Syria especially with Israel at risk.

However, the Syrian scenario presents a changing face. Or how else will one describe a mere solidarity protest turning a large scale civil war with world power disagreeing on how best to act? Whatever the sides or parties to the conflict, it is agreed by all that Chemical weapons are a no-no in warfare. In an unstable and uncertain country as Syria, the fear of its proliferation among armed groups whether pro-government or antigovernment gives a cause for concern.

SAFE GUARDING SYRIA’s CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND THE RED LINE

Regardless of the rumours and accusations, the use of Chemical Weapons by any of the parties to the Syrian conflict is condemnable and Obama maybe pleased to act now. However even if any external action may be seen as an R2P (responsibility to protect), the policy and intrigues of the conflict calls for caution. Likely moves across the RED LINE are:

• *        Limited and targeted airstrikes against Syrian Military installation to reduce the capability of the Syrian Military.
• *        A commando raid and seizure of all of Syria’s Chemical weaponry in addition to air strikes
• *        This might provide a window for an attack/strikes on radical jihadist Islamic groups too as they are not trusted by the west. This ploy may help to enhance and single out a distinct rebel force to counterbalance the government forces.
• *        Knocking off of Syria’s air defences and establishing a no fly zone.
• However, UN inspectors are already on the ground in Syria to establish evidences. It remains to be seen if the Western powers will wait for their results or resolution from the UN Security Council before acting.

Whatever form the REDLINE crossing might take if it ever does happens, care must be taken to sustain the Assad regime else further quandary to the conflict if Assad is taken out by any of these actions. Syria’s neighbours will definitely feel some fall out too.

Turkey and Jordan already host US military bases and Syrian refugees and both countries should expect more.

For Israel and Lebanon, their cases are delicately critical. Lebanon is already feeling the strain in terms of refugee pressure (at some point, it is estimated that both Palestinian and Syrian refugees on Lebanese soil will outnumber the Lebanese. With Hezbollah actively participating in the Syrian conflict, their activities might be targeted by US air strikes. Israel will bear the brunt of a likely retaliatory attack and this time with the conflict nearer home, unlike the 1991 gulf war where Israel was placated from retaliating to Iraqi scud missiles, there might be some form of activity from the Israelis—probably airstrikes on Lebanon and Syria. Hoping their intelligence do a good job. And as for Iraq, it will serve as a retreat for any further insurgent actions in Syria. I’m sure the US will not want to go after them there!

One must not forget the proxies staring at a distance—Iran! Might just do some threating and underground supplies to its fighting proxies.

In all, the REDLINE crossing if not properly prosecuted might set the stage for a wider conflict across the Middle East. Whether a bluff or not, the actors must think before crossing the REDLINE!

"Yes, it is true, the great powers can wage wars,……but can they win them?"---Bashar Al Assad (Syrian President)