After years of Military rule, Nigeria clawed back her path to democratic
governance in 1999 and for the first time in her history, there have been three
successive democratic transitions without Military intervention. Though marred
by electoral irregularities, political assassination and post election
violence, the Nigerian democratic model is seen as that which is growing from
the nascent stage of teething pains to the part of maturity.
Political map of Nigeria
Based on the American Presidential system of government, the Nigerian
government is tailored to the Federal System of government with a two term
limit of four years each for the executive arm, and an unlimited four year term for the legislative arm. With a skewed
Federal system concentrating central power on the executive, the elections for
executive posts (Presidential and gubernatorial) are seen as a ‘do or die’ affair. The matter is not helped with the juicy pecuniary
emolument attached to political posts coupled with the power to issue contracts
which is usually a drain pipe to loot public funds; politics is seen as a worthy full time career/business venture.
Another divisive factor used as a political tool is religion and
ethnicity. To the North of the Niger/Benue Rivers,
the population is predominantly Muslim and unified by the Hausa language;
though still ethnically diverse, the influence of the defunct Sokoto Caliphate
which ruled the area during pre-colonial times is still felt and that accounts
for the unifying language and religion. Nevertheless, there are pockets of
highland areas untouched by the Jihad thus having different ethno-religious mix up. Such areas like Jos, Southern Kaduna being religious/cultural
islands (mostly Christianity) differing from their
predominantly Muslim Hausa/Fulani neighbours.
South of the Niger-Benue trough to the West, the population is
predominantly Yoruba and their religious leaning is a near equal balance of
Christianity and Islam albeit mixed with a deep affinity for cultural and indigenous
belief/bond. To the East of the Niger River, the population is predominantly of
the Igbo ethnic stock and the Niger Delta is awash with an agglomeration of
several ethnic leanings, though the Ijaw ethnic group is dominant. Christianity
is the dominant religion in this part of the country.
Nigeria’s ethnic diversity
Such is the diverse polarity of Nigeria’s ethno-religious mix, making the ethnic/religious leaning of any political aspirant a first
point of question. As such, major political parties in Nigeria are cognizant of
this so if for example a political aspirant is Christian, his/her running mate
must be Muslim. If He/she is from the South, the running mate must be from the
North. This principle is referred to as zoning and though it is the
constitutional agreement of the ruling PDP (People’s Democratic Party), such
norm is widely accepted in the national political consciousness as politically
correct.
This has enhanced the deep mistrust along tribal and religious lines
especially betwixt the North and South. The North is seen to be politically
dominant having produced 8 of Nigeria’s 12 rulers since independence who have
spent a combined 30yrs of 54yrs of independence in power.
Agglomerated by British colonial rule, the fault lines in Nigeria’s
political make up was evident during the pogrom of the Igbo’s in the North after the
first coup d’etat in 1966 which led to a 30month civil war.
Ever since, there has been no stop to bloodletting in pockets of sporadic ethnoreligious violence in Northern cities of Kano, Kaduna, Bauchi etc each time targeting Christians and Southerners (either Christian or Muslim).
It is however sad to note that after such riots, no master minder/perpetrator
is brought to book. This has fuelled suspicion and mistrust conjuring
insinuations that the government (at those times controlled by Northerners)
where behind the violence.
With the advent of democracy in 1999, power shifted to the south as
Ex-Military ruler, Gen. Obasanjo won the presidential elections. His advent to
power was seen as power balance after 20 contiguous years of Military rule albeit by Northerners. He went on to rule for two
terms and made attempts to push for a third term which was thwarted. The
North/South ethno religious mistrust continued to fester during his rule as
some governors of Northern states sued for sharia law in their domain. With the
Presidency powerless to stop the trend, the entrenched mistrust cascaded into
riots in Northern Christian enclaves of Jos and its environs.
Aside, ethno-religious violence, Nigeria’s peace has been taunted by the
rise of militancy. This is a resultant of politicians arming thugs
to intimidate their opponents and then abandoning or refusing to mop up
arms given to these thugs after elections. These actions fuelled the ferocity
and menace of the Niger Delta militants in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in
the North East.
The Niger Delta after a long agitation for resource control has produced
the Country’s current president in Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and, this has helped to quell the activities of the Militants. However, with
elections around the corner and the president intending to run for a second
term, there have been associated excerbated fears in the National polity viz:
1.
A prominent Niger Delta militant leader, Asari Dokubo have issued a threat that the President
either wins the election or not return home as the President must exhaust all
available term limit.
2.
There are fears that
elections may not hold in some parts of the North East where Boko Haram’s
activities are ferocious thus granting illegitimacy to any planned elections.
3.
Security fears have
made elections to be postponed from February 14th to March 28 with the
intention that the army would have recaptured territories occupied by Boko
Haram.
4.
There are innate
fears that the elections might not even hold at all with the premise that: If
the army could not contain Boko Haram in the last 6 years, how would they in 6
weeks? This might cause a constitutional crisis if the transition programme is
thwarted.
5.
The outburst of Militants
and opposition leaders threatening war or forming a parallel government casts a shadow of
impending violence on the Nation.
Ultimately, the fear is this: If President Jonathan looses at the polls,
the Niger Delta militants might begin violence which entails bursting oil
pipelines, kidnapping of oil workers all of which will shut down oil production
which is the main stay of the economy.
A win for President Jonathan might ignite post election violence in the
North and with a delicate security balance unlike 2011; the security forces might have
their hands full in that regard.
Every Nigerian knows what the permutations are and in the end the resilient
spirit will wear on, but some lives will be lost and life will go
on till another political transition period
when the same cycle will be repeated.
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