The Central African Republic—ANOTHER FAILED STATE IN THE MAKING

In the eyes of the International Community, Countries such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq are readily referred to as failed states (states where the central government cannot exercise effective control/governance beyond the walls of the seat of government). However, to this unwholesome list, several countries do in a sense compete for notified positions on the list! One of such countries is the Central African Republic- A landlocked country located at the heart of Central African, it is bordered by Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo.

Map of The CAR
Source:http://www.mapsofworld.com/central-african-republic/

The throes of the CAR can be traced to the have begun with the first coup d’etat in that country by army commander, Jean-Bedel Bokassa in 1965. In the face of economic turmoil, he stirred the country to through a tyrannical part defined by adept kleptomaniacism. He was ultimately ousted in a coup in 1979 and a circle of coups, civil discontent and unrests ravaged the country in successive trends since then.

A defining moment to the current abject crumble into a failed state began when President Ange-Felix Patasse sacked the army chief, General Francois Bozize in 2001 after accusations of his involvement in a coup d’etat. Ever since then, the story of the CAR turmoil has been woven around these two main actors backed by foreign armed groups which includes the armed forces of Chad, Libya, France, South Africa and Congolese rebel groups.

In a turn of rebellious events, General Francois Bozize stirred a rebellion invading from the North and ultimately pushed Ange-Felix Patasse out power when his forces swept South into Bangui in 2003 despite Libyan backing of CAR’s government forces. Bozize immediately installed himself into power as the head of a newly constituted transitional government and as subsequent plenipotentiary head of government after general elections in 2005.

Plagued by heavy flooding and yet to recover from the humanitarian crises as a result of the Bozize lead rebellion, peace in the CAR faced another torment as fresh rebellion/ banditry attacks resumed in the North of the country led by Abdoulaye Miskine of the People's Democratic Front. The woes of the CAR increased when the Darfur conflict in Sudan spiralled into the CAR. The vast jungles of the CAR provided a haven for refugees and armed groups in the conflict and joining them in their new found home was the Itinerant fugitive Ugandan rebel group in the Lord’s Resistance Army. In the wake of this trend, the CAR also played host to the Ugandan army who claimed to be in pursuit of the fugitive LRA group.

As such, the government of the CAR led by Francois Bozize exercised no real authority over the country save for the capital. Adding to this lax in governance, the CAR was faced with strike actions/protest from various arms of the public work force as the government complained of adept bankruptcy and hence could not meet salary demand. Even as these events raged, another rebel insurrection began and continued intermittently between 2006 and 2011.

And then in 2012, a rebel coalition called Seleka led by  Michel Djotodia who was a loyalist to ex-president Ange-Felix Patasse began to deliver the final blow to the Bozize led regime. Undeterred by peace deals and cabinet offers, the Seleka coalition forced Bozize out of CAR in March 2013 and Michel Djotodia seized power. Not even the firepower of the AU forces led by the South African Army could stop the onslaught though there was alleged Chadian backing to the rebel efforts as the French army secured the country’s main airport.

The elegy of rebellion in the CAR has taken a toll on the country. Though it has numerous natural resources in diamonds, rare earth metals and a lush jungle of rainforest, the government is cash strapped and adeptly bankrupt. The numerous fugitive armed groups roaming the countryside have in their cadre child soldiers as their frontline members.

CAR child soldiers and frontline members of armed groups
Source:http://ow.ly/gxNI2

The central government is effectively powerless to administer the country. Having a ragtag defence force and law enforcement agencies with numerous armed groups (foreign and local) roaming the countryside, the security situation is a no-no.

The activities of these armed groups are having an unwholesome effect on the CAR residents especially in terms of pillage, rape and forced conscription; hence the disbandment and criminalization of the Seleka rebels ironically by its leader, Michel Djotodia. It won’t be surprising if elements of this group begin another full scale rebellion pushing the current president out of power.

The advance of the Seleka rebels into Bangui in March 2013
Source: REUTERS

As the world watches and debate the Arab spring especially in Egypt and Syria, another country is sliding the Somalia way. Failure to nip the malignant CAR crises will result in:

•       A haven for rebel groups who can threaten the peace of Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, DRCongo, Uganda and the wider continent of Africa
•     A field for proliferation of light and heavy weapons
•   Another failed state draining the world in humanitarian and peace keeping initiative
•    Another haven for religious extremist/terrorist cells as seen especially in recent religious incited clashes.

The UN and AU should strengthen their peace resolves in the CAR and save Africa the pain of having another failed State!

THE WHITE ELEPHANT AT TINAPA

The Vision of Tinapa is described as.

...to play a catalytic role in establishing Calabar as a trade and distribution hub in West Africa while at the same time providing a unique tourism experience that will inform the growth and enhancement of the tourism sector in Calabar, Cross River State and Nigeria………..

Of all the tourist attractions in the South-South geopolitical zone, Tinapa has been top of my interest ever since I got to know it from media reports in 2007. In fact, during my undergraduate years, it has been a destination for ‘edutainment tourism’ of several student groups from my school. Neglecting the far-flunged distance from the South West, it has been testified of as a place worth visiting. Having the opportunity to do my national service at neighbouring Akwa Ibom State, I vowed to undertake the edutainment tourist trip to Tinapa and 10^th August 2013 afforded me the opportunity. For the first time in my life, I set foot on Calabar, destination Tinapa!

As a student of Architecture, I was held in awe by the flawless construction detail of the infrastructures, the judicious planning and zoning and in all, the serenity of the environment. However, after touring the site, I couldn’t help being encumbered in thoughts at the dull economic atmosphere of the so-called ‘free-trade zone’. For God’s sake, Tinapa didn’t exist as a natural phenomenon! It is man-made and at that, it must have cost billions of dollars to construct! I wondered why in about six years of its existence/commissioning, it has failed to live up to its bidding. As one who has lived through the hustles and bustles of Lagos, Tinapa should live up to the Lagos standard in terms of commercial activities. A visual negation of this thought made me probe further into the origins of Tinapa.

Commissioned 2^nd April 2007, the Tinapa free trade & resort was built with the intention of combining business and recreational functions with duty free shopping. An intriguing aspect of the Tinapa story is that it was meant to complement the concomitant Calabar Free Trade Zone due South of Tinapa. Built by the Cross River State government under the Donald Duke administration, Tinapa was meant to facilitate international commerce of goods and service devoid of nebulous custom clearance gridlocks. As such, goods (especially for export) alongside retail shopping are meant to sell at Tinapa void of taxes and custom clearance. Just like a free port, it will then attract traders from the international and local markets to ply their trade at Tinapa. As a resultant, one cannot underestimate the economies of scale in terms of support facilities and activities that would emanate from such an economic/commercial hub. And for sure this would help to awaken and standardize the industrial ingenuity of the South Eastern heartlands of Aba, Onitsha, Umuahia and Enugu, as products from these industrial hubs would find a ready international market in Tinapa. Thus, another Chinese Shanghai or HongKong and Middle Eastern Dubai would be right at our door steps at Calabar for Nigerians, West Africans and Africans!

However what did I see at Tinapa?               

•  Commercial dry emporiums thinly laden with goods for sale

Unoccupied shop space

•      Most sales shops unused/unoccupied
•    Closed down studio, cinema and casino

The Tinapa studios (closed down)

•   Commercial dull ancilliary/relaxation facilities like the fisherman/craft village, games arcade etc
• Only the amusement/water park could be said to be fully put to use. However, the revenue could soar gargantuanlly if economic activities peaked at Tinapa

The amusement/relaxation park at Tinapa

Commercial Hubs at Tinapa begging for commercial activity

After these observations, my thoughts followed up with some questions which apparently were maligning the Tinapa dream:

If Tinapa was built with full cooperation of financial instutions, the Cross River State government and the blessing of the Federal government as seen in the commissioning of the project by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, why the lag on the part of the Federal Government in granting/licensing Tinapa in full economic swing?

With the hyper economic/commercial activities at the Lagos Port, and the Oil based export tendencies of ports in the Rivers/Delta axis, Calabar port and Tinapa provides another corridor for the decongestion of the Lagos port, whilst facilitating the rejuvenation of the erudite industrial capabilities of the South East which in turn will boost tourism to spectacular attractions within the zones. For all the potential Tinapa affords, it has been laid at the altar of neglect by the Federal government (since it has the plenipotentiary powers to sanction the operation of Free port zones).

Upon my departure from Tinapa, I pondered on this---

“Tinapa is set to become a world-class integrated business resort. Located on the Calabar River, and contiguous to the Calabar Free Trade Zone (Calabar FTZ), Tinapa is the realisation of an exciting dream - the first integrated business and leisure resort in Nigeria.”

Yes! Tinapa is infrastructurally set but wilfully neglected! For the first time in the 21^st century, Nigeria seemed to have made a stride in pawning on her economic potential and just when it seemed done, the dream seems to be going moribund!

Tinapa wasn’t built for cobwebs and lichens; neither was it built to occupy a vacuum of desolation.

Who then will slay the white elephant at Tinapa to awaken the sleeping economic giant in Nigeria?

.

SECURITY ISSUES IN NIGERIA: quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

In one of his Satires, 1^st Century Roman Poet, Decimus Iunius Iuvenalis also referred to as Juvenal asked in a rhetorical manner... ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’  translating in English to mean ‘who guards the guards?’ Amid the security challanges facing the nation, a question that readily comes to mind is ‘who guards the guards?’  In our contemporary world where crime has reached extreme sophistication, it requires extreme sophisticated policing to tackle.

Like every nation, Nigeria is bedeviled with numerous criminal activities ranging from armed robbery, fraud, insurgency, ritual killings among numerous others. Although it is the desire of every peace loving citizen to have a sane society, crime like cancer is ever present and can be either benignant or malignant; thus, making it is the onus task of a country’s security apparatus to curb or quell crime. Nigeria, like any other country in the world has a security apparatus postioned against internal and external intrusion.

Ever since independence, Nigeria has been plagued by ethnic conflicts, civil war, religious riots, electoral violence, armed robbery and of recent, Boko Haram insurgency. In recent times, the intensity of these conflicts has caused the government to deploy special military apparatus commonly known with different acronyms such as JTF (Joint Task Force) in the Niger Delta, ORO (Operation Restore Order) in the North East, STF (Special Task Force) around Jos and trouble spots around the country.

In Nigeria, violent crimes most times follow a common trend; firstly an aggrieved hatred against a targeted group of people and then targeted or sporadic killings with the security apparatus watching helplessly. Action from the government most times only comes after several lives have been lost. Of recent, the following security issues have once more raised the question ‘who guards the guards?’, viz;

*        The bombing incident at the Eagles Square amid the Jubilee anniversary celebration of Nigeria’s Independence. Independence celebrations have been confined to the Presidential villa since then

*        The attack on the Police Anti-Robbery Squad Headquarters in November 2012

*        The suicide bombing attack at the Nigeria Police Force Headquarters at Abuja in June 2011

*        The Suicide bombing attack at the Nigeria Police Force Zone 1 headquarters at Kano in January 2012

Among several incidents these stand out and call for the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’  …. Who guards the guards?

The Sucide attack on the Nigeria Police Force Headquarters on 16th June 2011; an apparent attempt on the life of the Inspector General of police....quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Around the country, the sight of armed soldiers manning roadblocks alongside policemen is a common scene. Whilst this give an additional security assurance to the common man, it must be noted that Soldiers are not meant to man road roadblocks; the sight of gun totting soldiers reminds one of no other thing but war! The police and other allied internal security apparatus are responsible for internal security whilst the Armed Forces (Army, Navy and Airforce) are responsible for the nation’s external security. While within the Nation’s borders, the place of the Armed Forces is at their respective barracks else a national emergency.

The current internal security situation in Nigeria calls for concern and proactive measures to tackle. All this while, the Nigerian government has been apparently reactive in tackling security issues. In tackling Nigeria’s internal security issues, the Police force must be repositioned instead of constantly involving the Armed Forces.

SUGGESTIONS

Tackling the Security issues from the proactive angle calls for a massive use of intelligence not incessant roadblocks! A coordinated cooperation among Nigeria’s Intelligence apparatus; the CID (Criminal Investigation Department), the SSS (State Security Service) and that of the Armed Forces (the DMI-Director of Military Intelligence) is required. This brings to question the issue of a National database which has not been tangibly pursued by the government for some time. This will help keep track of every citizen of the Nigerian State.

Another Proactive measure which the government must consider is arms control. It is common knowledge that the country is illegally awash with sophisticated weaponry or how else will one explain the arms with the Boko Haram militants (who initially started their insurgency with machetes), the Niger Delta militants and several armed terror unleashing gangs around the country? Implementing a stiff border control and small arms licensing is the key to curtailing the trend. One must not also forget that some of these armed gangs are armed by politicians during elections. In this case, nobody must be above the law.

Whilst the issue of State police is debateable among Nigerian circles, Community Policing should not be ignored. Instead of ragtag vigilante groups patrolling the neighbourhoods, a case of community policing will help bridge the security gap within neighbourhoods. This also involves the use of local intelligence and CCTV monitoring instead of roadblocks. As such, Community Policing can come under a command of an effective local government structure and help provide security cover in the deep hinterland and curb the excesses of Herdsmen.

In all, the reactive measures put in place by the government in quelling the Boko Haram insurgency is quite plausible. However, one cannot but wink at the re-insurgency of the Boko Haram gangs highlighted in targeted killings of local vigilante groups even after the Armed forces have claimed to have swept out the insurgency. A candid implementation of community policing measures will help abate the trend.

In conclusion, the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’ …who guards the guards must be answered by the Nigerian Security apparatus. It is embarrassing when the Nigerian internal security situation degenerates to that of failed states and above all, it is most embarrassing when Military barracks, police stations, prisons, police headquarters are attacked with impunity. It does leave one pondering the question ‘quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’ …who guards the guards? There surely must be an answer to this!

THE INTRIGUES OF CROSSING THE REDLINE IN SYRIA

THE INTRIGUES OF CROSSING THE  REDLINE IN SYRIA

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized...... "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."... Barack Obama (20th August 2012)

Just over a year ago, the President of the United States was quoted as saying this in an interview. At that time, the Syrian scenario was evolving from that of a protest/uprising to a full scale civil war. After series of wrangling, debates, resolutions and counter resolutions at the UN security council, the Syrian crises was allowed to rage devoid of significant external inference from the Great Powers (US, UK, France, Russia and China).

The Syrian case is so peculiar to the world and the entire Middle East that it cannot be ignored, if not for any reason one surely stands out—Syria’s Chemical weapons. Estimated to be about the world’s fourth largest, Syria’s Chemical weapon arsenal hosts a contingent of deadly nerve agents such as Sarin, VX, Mustard gas and Tabun. Believed to be having been acquired in the 1980’s, Syria hosts this weaponry as a deterrent to Israel among other reasons.

The advent of the 20^th century changed the face of warfare in the globe forever! From the use of the general purpose machine gun (GPMG) which mows down an advancing infantry to the use of ballistics which can effectively engage non neighbouring countries in war; not to talk of the advancement in military avionics; in contemporary warfare parlance, warfare is now either conventional or non-conventional.

After the use of Chlorine gas by German forces during WW1, the world has witnessed a rapid advancement and deployment of weapons of mass destruction in terms of Nuclear, Thermonuclear, Chemical and Biological weapons—all termed nonconventional weapons. Though all weapons (conventional & nonconventional) are deadly, nonconventional weapons have a long term adverse effect on the planet and indeed could aid the genocide of sections of humanity or the human race as a whole! This fact has prompted the great powers (US,UK, Russia, France and China) to sign and ratify several treaties banning the use and spread of non conventional weapons.

On the question of Chemical weapons, drafted in 1992 and ratified by 65 countries, the Chemical Weapons Convention prohibits the use of Chemical weapons. Of 189 UN member states which are parties to this, Syria and six other UN member nations are not parties to the convention.

Apparently hosted as a deterrent to Israel’s superior conventional military and undeclared nonconventional weapons arsenal, Syria’s Chemical arsenal is scattered across the country and with the Syrian uprising turning to a full blown civil conflict, there were fears that Syria’s Chemical assets could fall into wrong hands or that the Syrian army could use them against opposition forces. In July 2012, the Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi stated that the Syrian armed forces would never use chemical weapons against domestic opposition, while remarking that these weapons remained available for use against "external aggression". However, ever since then, reports/ rumours of the use of Chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict began to filter in.

SOME INCIDENCES

*        In September 2012, there were reports that the Syrian military had restarted testing of chemical weapons at a base on the outskirts of Aleppo.

*        On 23^rd December 2012, Al Jazeera released unconfirmed reports that a gas attack killed 7 civilians in the rebel-held al-Bayyada neighbourhood of Homs.

*        On 19 March 2013, new unconfirmed reports surfaced that SCUD missiles armed with chemical agents may have been fired into the Khan al-Asal district in Aleppo and the Al Atebeh suburbs of Damascus, with both sides accusing each other of carrying out the attack.

Among several confirmed and unconfirmed incidences, the one that triggered international attention was an alleged Chemical weapons use during intense fighting between government forces and rebels at Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus on 21^st August 2013.

Amid the accusations of Chemical weapon usage, the Syrian government has reiterated that’s its arsenal was in safe hands. However, it’s baffling when the Syrian government accuse rebels of using chemical weapons. Does it mean the rebels have access/ capability to use these weapons? Who can be held responsible or credible in the face of these accusations and counter accusations?

When Barack Obama made the ‘RED LINE’ statement after several frustrations at the UN Security Council, he was seen by some as merely throwing tantrums! After all, past United States interventions save that of Kosovo has resulted in unstable states in the end- Iraq, Afghanistan, and most recently Libya are perfect examples. He certainly won’t want another US mess in Syria especially with Israel at risk.

However, the Syrian scenario presents a changing face. Or how else will one describe a mere solidarity protest turning a large scale civil war with world power disagreeing on how best to act? Whatever the sides or parties to the conflict, it is agreed by all that Chemical weapons are a no-no in warfare. In an unstable and uncertain country as Syria, the fear of its proliferation among armed groups whether pro-government or antigovernment gives a cause for concern.

SAFE GUARDING SYRIA’s CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND THE RED LINE

Regardless of the rumours and accusations, the use of Chemical Weapons by any of the parties to the Syrian conflict is condemnable and Obama maybe pleased to act now. However even if any external action may be seen as an R2P (responsibility to protect), the policy and intrigues of the conflict calls for caution. Likely moves across the RED LINE are:

• *        Limited and targeted airstrikes against Syrian Military installation to reduce the capability of the Syrian Military.
• *        A commando raid and seizure of all of Syria’s Chemical weaponry in addition to air strikes
• *        This might provide a window for an attack/strikes on radical jihadist Islamic groups too as they are not trusted by the west. This ploy may help to enhance and single out a distinct rebel force to counterbalance the government forces.
• *        Knocking off of Syria’s air defences and establishing a no fly zone.
• However, UN inspectors are already on the ground in Syria to establish evidences. It remains to be seen if the Western powers will wait for their results or resolution from the UN Security Council before acting.

Whatever form the REDLINE crossing might take if it ever does happens, care must be taken to sustain the Assad regime else further quandary to the conflict if Assad is taken out by any of these actions. Syria’s neighbours will definitely feel some fall out too.

Turkey and Jordan already host US military bases and Syrian refugees and both countries should expect more.

For Israel and Lebanon, their cases are delicately critical. Lebanon is already feeling the strain in terms of refugee pressure (at some point, it is estimated that both Palestinian and Syrian refugees on Lebanese soil will outnumber the Lebanese. With Hezbollah actively participating in the Syrian conflict, their activities might be targeted by US air strikes. Israel will bear the brunt of a likely retaliatory attack and this time with the conflict nearer home, unlike the 1991 gulf war where Israel was placated from retaliating to Iraqi scud missiles, there might be some form of activity from the Israelis—probably airstrikes on Lebanon and Syria. Hoping their intelligence do a good job. And as for Iraq, it will serve as a retreat for any further insurgent actions in Syria. I’m sure the US will not want to go after them there!

One must not forget the proxies staring at a distance—Iran! Might just do some threating and underground supplies to its fighting proxies.

In all, the REDLINE crossing if not properly prosecuted might set the stage for a wider conflict across the Middle East. Whether a bluff or not, the actors must think before crossing the REDLINE!

"Yes, it is true, the great powers can wage wars,……but can they win them?"---Bashar Al Assad (Syrian President)

THE ARAB SPRING: IMPLICATIONS AND LESSONS LEARNED

The public uprisings across the Middle East that greeted the dawn of the year 2011 came as a bewilderment to many. Ever since the middle ages, the Middle East-the home of the Arabs and the Spiritual home of the Islamic world has been ruled by several theocratic minded  governments and empires; in all, the reign of the Caliphs is still being referred to as the gloriest of all. The end of the First World War saw the demise of the Ottoman Empire and for the first time since the time of the Crusades, parts of the Arab world was ruled by Western Powers under the League of Nations Mandate. At first, the Arab world basked in the euphoria of freedom from Ottoman rule but later, Arab independence was sought.

Unlike the time of the Caliphs when the Arab world was under one government, this time the Arabs found themselves partitioned into several countries and at independence, Western powers (Great Britain and France) installed monarchical governments from the Hashemite clan to rule. Iraq had King Faisal 1, Jordan had King Abdullah, Egypt had King Fouad and Libya had King Farouk.

Apparently, these installed Monarchies were client regimes to the Allied powers and so a wave of Arab Nationalism arose shortly in the mid 20^th Century- The Baath party and Muslim brotherhood movement was born. The former party seized power through zealous Nationalist Military men and installed a wave of secular regimes across the Arab world.

These regimes were characteristically Sunni led except that of Syria and Iran which was Alawite and Shiite led. From the time of the Caliphs, the Arab world has been split along sectarian lines in terms of Islamic orthodoxy and this trend is a marked irreconcilable rift among the adherents to the Islamic faith; the Sunni and Shia sect being the most prominent among other miniature Islamic sects and subsects. At a time of Arab consciousness, the over 1000year rift once again came to prominence.

The Western powers preached democracy and were ready to take their crusade to heights in Africa especially at times of financial aid. However, when it came to the Middle

East, just like the USA’s power play in Central/Latin America in the 20th century, the West was basically interested installing client regimes-‘doesn’t matter whether democratic or autocratic’ provided the Jewish State was safe and their loyalty was ascertained.

For too long, several minority groups or indeed the Arab world in its entirety was held under repression. The Kurds, Berbers, Muslim Brotherhood, Sunni, Shiite, human rights et al; where held below freedom limits and thus a revolution was not farfetched! The USA and her allies despite fighting off Iraqi expansionist tendencies in the first gulf war and destroying significant Iraqi military machinery were involved in the first regime change in the Middle East all in the quest for ‘democracy among other motives’- the result, an unstable and ungovernable democratic Iraq!

Saddam Hussein's Statue at the centre of Baghdad being felled by Iraqi's after US troops entered the city in April 2003
Source: bbcnews.com

Like the fall of Saddam’s Statue in Baghdad, the Arab spring was greeted with cheers and thoughts of a prospective Utopia and Nationalistic bliss. Starting with the fall of the Tunisian regime of Ben Ali (who has always won previous elections by 98%) to Egypt’s Mubarak, the agony of the Arab Spring oozed with the military repressions in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. Yet, the unimaginable fall of the regime of the King of Kings of Africa and Imam of Muslims in Gaddafi’s Libya through Western help gave the impetus for a prolonged Syrian uprising that has seen Bashir Al-Assad sit tight despite having over 100,000 killed and just a little less than 2million displaced internally and externally as refugees.

Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi while they still held sway
Source:bbcnews.com

For Tunisia, it witnessed multiparty elections with a religious backed party forming the government; the apparatus of state being intact though expectations are still yet to be met.

The fall of Gaddafi did usher elections too, but with the apparatus of State in full collapse and the country awash with weapons, the Spring has brought nothing but an unsafe state truly governed by armed clans and gangs.

In Egypt, the Military did play a role in fall of the Mubarak regime and when elections finally came, the long repressed Muslim Brotherhood came to power. With expectations high, it’s been one protest after the other for and against government policies. Everybody now has a say and the exuberance was felt on the streets. The resultant- with just a year in power, the Muslim brotherhood led democratic government was brought down by protests albeit a Military coup.

Bodies of slain Egyptian protesters, most of them members of the Muslim Brotherhood
Source:bbcnews.com

The Egyptian Streets and squares have exhibited the democratic exuberance of all sides and parties in Egypt and for progress sake; the Military has stepped in a crackdown to clear the streets of protesters but not without a drop of blood!

The Egyptian Military clearing
Source:bbcnews.comthe Muslim Brother hood protesters in Cairo

It has been bloody in Yemen and Bahrain and Syria continues to shed more. What lessons do we have to learn?

      Revolutionary results as initially swift will not come easy and fast. Patience is the virtue.

      Religious parties have to redefine governance in a secular atmosphere, such that would accommodate minorities and respect the rights of everyone. Maybe Tunisia scored important points in this case.

      Care must be taken to ensure the preservance of the apparatus of state because revolution aftermaths are usually chaotic. Once again, thumbs up Tunisia!

      Revolutions should have a defined cause, devoid of significant external influence

 But the hardest lesson is that, by itself, people power is not enough. Translating popular protest and popular anger into real and lasting change is the real deal for any successful revolution.

Syria—What next for the revolution?

The Syrian conflict—an offshoot of the famous January 2011 Arab Spring which shook regimes in the Arab world has featured deadly twists and turns since it was caught in the winds of the Arab spring since March 2011.

Starting with mild solidarity protests in favour of the Arab Spring in other Arab nations, the protests metamorphosized into anti-government protests in major Syrian cities. Undecided on how to respond to the protesters, the Syrian government responded with counter protest actions by pro-government supporters and later quelling anti-government protest with outright use of force! The Syrian government forces began firing live rounds into anti-government protest groups! And that became the last straw that broke the camel’s back. The Syrian senario became that of an irreversible conflict senario. Defecting government troops and others ready to take up arms against the government formed the Free Syrian Army. The opposition made some political arrangements and at a point, it was recognized by the Western powers and most Arab countries as the legitimate government of Syria--- but do they really control the fighting wing, let alone the contiguous swathes of territory?

From pockets of skirmishes and uprisings, the Syrian conflict has grown to a full blown conflict or sectarian civil war leaving much of Syria in ruins. Over the last few months, Aleppo, Homs, Idlib, Hama, Idlib, et al, have had parts or almost all of their environs in ruins.

                                                   A devastated Khalidiya district in Homs

With the Syrian conflict taking a sectarian pattern featuring the majority Sunni Population against the minority ruling Alawi and the foreign implications to the conflict, it’s difficult to see an amicable end at sight.

An aerial view of the Khalidiya district of Homs (the Home of the Syrian revolution)

Much to the displeasure and disgust of the majority Sunni Arab neighbours, the Syrian government has received technical and manpower support from Iran and its proxy militia-Hezbollah. At the level of the United Nations, China and especially Russia have shown unwavering support for the Syrian regime of Bashir Al-Assad.

Whilst the Syrian conflict started amid the controversies that engulfed the Western involvement in Libya, the United States, Britain and France were very cautious in militarily supporting the opposition cause; inferring that military support from them will happen only when the Syrian government is seen to have used Chemical weapons against it people.

At the onset of the conflict with fatality figures still in its hundreds, it was thought that it would only be a matter of time before the Assad regime tows the line of Egypt’s Mubarak and Tunisia’s Ben Ali especially with defections of some high ranking government and military officials. Intriguingly, the government has withstood all odds and it appears there will be no letting down in the face of the armed opposition. In fact, it has blamed the armed uprising against it as the work of ‘foreign armed gangs’ and terrorists!. While this statement may be disputable at the onset of the conflict, it’s hard to decipher the allegiances of the armed Syrian opposition. Initially starting out as renegade soldiers and men with munitions; the armed Syrian opposition now comprises of foreign fighters prominent among them-Jihadist from the Al-Nusra front which does have links to Al Queda.

At the early stages of the Syrian conflict, with the Assad regime not buckling with rising armed insurrection, a strategic and tactical arming of the Syrian opposition would have most likely turned the tide. As the conflict wore on to a stalemate, a strategic boost in weaponry and manpower support from Iran and Hezbollah and then influx of Shiite fighters from the Iraqi insurgency has boosted government morale as seen in the takeover of the strategic town of Quasir. This victory for the government troops have spurred up action for military action against other rebel held towns/cities prominent among which is Aleppo and Homs.

On the side of the armed opposition it remains unclear if there’s any unity with the political opposition which seem in disarray especially with the resignation of top shots. Boosted by Sunni militias and Jihadist fighters of Al-Queda leanings from around the middle-east and even world wide, it remains unclear who will receive armed support from western backers if it does eventually comes

Although heavily funded by Sunni Arab led governments top of which is Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Opposition still needs strategic armaments especially significant air support if they will score a military victory  against Assad’s forces

On the part of the Western powers that have already recognized the Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, they have had to reconsider their support in the face of the much detested Alqueda fighting mercenaries spurring up the armed opposition. The question they have to answer is who will they arm?

On the part of the government of Assad, they might claim some vindication now in their reference to the armed Syrian opposition as ‘armed gangs and terrorists’ from the onset of the conflict. And one thing remains clear! In the light of numerous fighting groups making up the Syrian opposition, if they do score military victory at last, the Syrian scenario won’t be different from what obtains in Iraq and Libya. Surely, it will be another recipe for the sectarian disintegration of Syria. On the other hand, after much detest against the Assad regime with so much blood spilled, would it be time for the Western Sunni powers to concede to Assad? After all, his government has stood firm and can only apparently reunite the country’s minority and majority groups sparing sectarian division..

Whilst the Western powers are trying to identify who to arm amongst the Syrian armed opposition, and the Russians, Iranians and Chinese staunchly unwavering in their support for Assad; wouldn’t it be time to consider the outcome of any endgame to the conflict?

Does the world need another addition to perennial disintegrated sectarian states especially in the Middle East awash with weapons? Or a peaceful state.. Whether autocratic or democratic provided there’s no bloodshed on a massive scale?

The answer to this begs the question. Let all players to the conflict ponder on their conscience!