Global and Regional Alliances Development on Syria

“The world is full of contradictions today. We need to be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals.... The international and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organisations are also going through difficult times..”.... Vladmir Putin (Valdai Club speech, October 2014)

From a tale of twist and turns, the Syrian conflict has metamorphosed from that of an Arab Spring solidarity protest to a full blown civil war with religious undertones, serving a practical laboratory for proxy warfare pitting regional and World powers against each other.

Illustration of the current Syrian conflict trend
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/16/world/middleeast/untangling-the-overlapping-conflicts-in-the-syrian-war.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Like an inselberg, the Assad regime has weathered the odds against it albeit the resultant carnage on the Syrian human and infrastructural milieu consequentially, of that Country’s 22million pre-war population, over 250,000 have been killed, about 7.6 million are internally displaced, 4million have fled the Country’s borders and have increasingly fuelled the European migrant/refugee crises. As such, on the current global scale, one out of every four refugees globally is Syrian.

Defying all peace mediation and palliative odds, especially with the active participation of Russia, the Syrian case is actively taking the course of leaving the last bleeding man be declared as victor; for in series of mis-calculated foreign intervention from regional and global powers, the resultant has been a creation of hydra-headed belligerents with no clear vision for the sustenance of the Syrian State.

With Western powers standing aloof at the onset of the Syrian conflict, regional powers of the Middle East championed by Saudi Arabia footed the belligerent cause against the Syrian government in terms of funding and arms. Seeing an opportunity for a balance of power, the Iranian government shored up support for its alleged Shiite spiritual ally in opposition against what it saw as an unbecoming resurging Sunni dominance from the Arab Spring. In the end, rebel groups funded by the Saudi Arabia led coalition of Middle East powers metamorphosed into hardliner Jihadist groups which in turn became a menacing threat to religious tolerance within the region.

Nevertheless, Western powers saw no glory in changing their stance against the Assad regime, choosing instead to derecognize the Assad government in favour of the opposition Free Syria Army. In spite of this, the Assad regime was learnt credence as it labelled the belligerent opposition as ‘terrorists’ and in the real sense of fact, the Syrian political Opposition had no control over the fighters and a times, the opposition belligerents had had to turn the guns on each other as there were gaps in central command control and ideological/religious stance to the conflict.

A caricature cartoon of Russia's Putin propping up Syria's Assad
Source:http://eastwestpublic.com/2015/10/09/russias-syrian-bombing-gives-boost-to-iran/

Amidst the ensuing chaos, Russia stood arms akimbo, preferring to support the Syrian government with resolutions and its veto power at the United Nations. As such, when the United States threatened the Syrian government with airstrikes if it crossed the ‘red line’ in the use of Chemical weapons, Russia pushed for the decommissioning of Syria’s Chemical weapons arsenal which in turn was surprisingly successful.

For four long years since the start of the Syrian conflict, it seems unending as it has defied the cerebral diplomatic intrigues of the World’s top diplomats in Koffi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi. Not even peace summits in the historic peace convention city of Geneva have brought any beacon of hope to resolving the Syrian conflict.

With all parties and proxies standing firm on their lines and not ready to yield ground, the Syrian conflict became embroiled in a stalemate, threatening to partition the country alongside the line of control of the belligerents. Not even the menacing advance the Islamic State (IS) identified as a common enemy to all parties in the conflict has united the belligerents. Instead, each belligerent has sought to deal with the Islamic State individually whilst pursing their individual causes against each other.

With the Syrian president openly admitting that he might have to concede territory to the enemy in order to consolidate its stronghold in the face of declining manpower, the Russians have seized the initiative to step up military support for the regime, whilst claiming to be doing its bit in fighting terrorism and Islamic extremism as manifested by the Islamic State.

Whilst the United States and its NATO allies have stepped up sortie attacks on Islamic State positions and refusing to collaborate with the Syrian government, rather choosing to identify ‘moderate Syrian rebels’ to train and arm as foot soldiers, the tactics has apparently failed, as the Islamic State keep capturing more territory and the US trained rebels keep melting away in battle against ISIS and gifting the enemy military hardware.

Russia on the other hand has chosen to identify with the Syrian government in the fight against the Islamic State and as such, entered into a de facto coalition with all parties supporting the Syrian government such as Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah.

Source: www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34474362

Despite the identification of a common enemy in ISIS by all belligerents, they have failed to unite under a common cause. This calls to question the historicity of Western powers if they have lessons from World War two when a coalition of Allied powers in United States, United Kingdom and Russia had to fight concomitantly to ensure the defeat of NAZI Germany, and the happenstances thereafter which resulted in the cold war.

As regional and global powers pursue their interests in the Syrian conflict, it must be noted that an inflammable situation which could ignite into a wider conflict is in the offing, as these conflicting powers could accidentally turn their weapons on one another.

Seventy years after the end of the most devastating war in Human history, there are still several applicable lessons to be learnt from World War Two. Regional and Global powers party to the Syrian conflict will profit the cause of global peace by taking revision courses from that epoch.

“The crisis has reached a point where, unless we end the war, the country will slowly empty itself — a haemorrhaging of its brightest and best, it’s young and old, escaping unspeakable horrors in the largest refugee migration since World War II, until all that will be left are the fighters”..... KIM GHATTAS

Turkey and the fight against the Islamic State

Turkish policy is "to pretend that it is waging a war against IS, while at the same time following up on another goal, which is to destroy the PKK"-----  Kerem Oktem, (Professor, Centre for Southeast European Studies at the University of Graz Austria).

Amidst the throes of neighbours enmeshed in the resultant troubles of the Arab Spring, Turkey has remained an island of stability in the volatile Middle East. Despite its secular pro-Western stance, and its membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey’s neutrality and stability has been called to question following the current Syrian conflict.

As an ex-empire controller which held sway over the Middle East under its Ottoman heritage, despite seeming indifference to the conflict situations in its neighbours, Turkey’s intervention to these conflict case point would always be a question of ‘a matter of time’. After initial fence sitting, the Turkish military has recently been called to action following a suicide bomb attack by the Islamic State (IS) on the town of Suruc close to the Turkish-Syrian border killing about 32 people on 20th July. This aroused a new twist, as Turkish-Kurdish PKK rebels blaming the Turkish government for alleged collaboration with the Islamic State in the Suruc attack, took a break from an existing cease fire, to kill two Turkish Policemen they accuse of facilitating the Suruc bombing. As such, an initial reluctant Turkey in the fight against IS and intervention in  troubled neighbours of Syria and Iraq was forced to call upon the USA to make use of its Southern Incirlik airbase as a launch pad for airstrikes against IS whilst also pursuing its interest against perceived enemies of the Turkish State.

Whilst the IS pose a threat to regional and global stability causing a coalition of regional and Western powers to launch airstrikes to contain the movement in Syria and Iraq, Turkey has until now chose to stand aloof in the fight against the IS despite it being on the receiving end of refugee inflows from neighbouring Syria and Iraq. This apparent indifference has caused suspicions in some quarters as to the real intentions of the Turkish government regarding IS, especially as it now serves a transit for foreigners seeking to join the IS in Iraq and Syria.

On the domestic front, Turkey has been trying to curtail the insurgent activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) since 1974; who have been agitating for independence of Kurdish areas from Turkey, alongside recent anti-government protests against perceived poor economic and political policies by the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP). Of all Turkish domestic troubles, the Kurdish question generates an unending regional resonance which sends jitters down the spines of the Ankara government.

United by ethnicity and language, the Kurds are spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, and they comprise about one fifth the population of Turkey. Failing to get a state of their own following the Treaty of Sevres after World War one, the Kurds of Turkey entrusted their future on the Turkish state that emerged following the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, which guaranteed the rights of minorities within Turkish borders. With the inability of the Kemalists to provide a sustainable democratic solution to the rights of minority peoples within Turkish borders, the Kurds became the latest group on the receiving end after bitter ordeals of the Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks in the face of Turkish Nationalism which ultimately had exterminated their historic presence in what is known as modern Turkey today. The Kurds in Turkey had their identity repressed as they were to be referred to as Turks. The Kurdish language was banned even as a means of learning in Kurdish areas and was not granted official recognition by the Turkish government. This inflamed Kurdish rebellion against the Turkish government, initially calling for secession and recently greater autonomy and recognition of Kurdish rights in Turkey.

Recognizing the spread of the Kurds across its neighbours, Turkey keeps a close watch on the activities of Kurdish separatism across its borders more so as the PKK has found safe haven and unity of mutual kinship amongst its brethren in arms in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has sought guarantees of non-secession from the autonomous Kurdish government of Northern Iraq and pledges to curtail the activities of the PKK in return for mutual friendship and non Turkish aggression against these groups.

Nevertheless, the Turkish government is concerned to the heights following the increased Militarization of Kurdish groups across its borders who are actually seeking to consolidate the fight against IS. The Peshmerga of Iraq and the Kurdish Peoples Protection Unit (YPG) of Syria have both proved potent fighting machines curtailing the spread of IS, aided by coalition airstrikes lead by the USA. Thus, the PKK which has been on a long term cease fire with the Turkish government has sought opportunity to aid their kinsmen in arms against IS much to the chagrin of the Turkish government. As such, Turkey has sought to restrain the flow of Kurds across its borders to Syria and Iraq.

The recent standoff between the YPG and IS in kobane (Just across the Syria-Turkish border) in which the YPG was able to hold ground and ward off IS advance under the watchful eyes of an unconcerned Turkey, who, fearing an intervention could indirectly bolster the PKK, called to question the tendencies and sympathies of Turkey; seeing a common enemy in IS within inches at its borders. This tendency began anti-Turkish inflammation amongst the Kurds which gradually simmered into a fresh PKK insurrection against Turkey.

Source:bbcnews.com

Though Turkey has followed up the latest IS attack on Suruc with joining airstrikes against IS targets in Syria, there are also underlining fears that Turkish airstrikes against the PKK who have joined their brethren in the fight against IS in Syria and Iraq, might in the end sabotage the anti IS efforts.

Turkey occupies a strategic and indispensable bridge between the West and the Muslim Middle East; therefore, its concerns cannot be ignored by Western powers. Thus, the PKK (which Turkey has made to be seen as an outlaw and terrorist group in the eyes of the West) might just be sacrificial pawns in the latest fight against the IS.

However, with the seeming unabated military power of the IS and the potency of Kurdish groups in its curtailment, diversionary airstrikes against PKK positions already embedded with the Syrian YPG and Iraqi Peshmerga might prove disastrous on the long run.

Seeing the complexities of the diversionary trend of anti PKK airstrikes by Turkey, it will be in regional and global interest for a one and united effort against IS devoid of diversionary aims, whilst Turkey settles Kurdish differences at the negotiation table. Not even the creation of an IS free safe zone in Northern Syria patrolled by ‘moderate Syrian rebels’ will help the cause for peace in troubled Syria. Rather, a renewed and increased Turkish involvement in tandem with regional and global powers will do to help the Syrian cause.

Now that Turkey has deemed it fit to intervene in the conflict situation within its region, it must be done for a common good rather than for selfish aims.

Regional Developments In The Battle For Syria

In an unfolding tragic tale of twists and turns, the Syrian conflict has transmuted from that of a solidarity show of support for the Arab Spring in 2011 to that of a continuous conflagrative self destruction perpetrated by a cesspool of several armed opposition factions majorly under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), several Jihadi groups notable among which are the Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State (IS); all of which though disunited on the battle front, are fighting a common cause of overthrowing the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Since 2011, when the conflict started, it was insinuated that the Syrian regime will fall, like that of Tunisia and Egypt within a couple of months. As protests against the government simmered, it was met with brute response from the security forces and that gave birth to the armed opposition mostly made up disaffected government soldiers under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). With a resolute government not ready to stand down, the scenario turned from that of protest scenes to a full scale conflict.

As world powers (US, UK, France, China and Russia) bickered on resolutions and counter resolutions to resolve the ensuing conflict, their actions and inaction buoyed by an unstable neighbouring Iraq facing a Jihadi insurgency turned the tide of the conflict to that of an unfolding grotesque. Jihadi fighters under the platform of the Islamic State or ISIS and the Al-Nusra front with a vision of creating an Islamic Caliphate in the entire Middle East launched cross border incursions into Syria. For the Jihadists they had two enemies; the Syrian government and the armed opposition forces. On the long run, the Islamic State (IS) gained much ground and declared a caliphate on conquered territories covering Iraq and Syria.

Haunted by the ripples of past military campaigns in the Middle East notably Iraq, the US and the Western powers though yearning for the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad dithered in active military support for the Syrian Opposition and with the Syrian regime finding active support from Russia, there was no blithe to the aggression of the opposition. As such, the Syrian conflict was left to run its brutal self destructive cause with the hope that the struggle would be resolved on the battle field.

The rise of the Islamic State kitted with sophisticated weaponry captured from the US kitted Iraqi army has changed the face of the conflict. With the capture of large swathes of territory across Iraq and Syria by this group, they seem poised to give a knockout blow to what is left of the regimes in Iraq and Syria and then expanding their conquest beyond. Faced with this threat and brutal executions of hostages by the Islamic state, the US together with a coalition of Western and Arab Countries have begun to take military action, launching airstrikes against IS targets. However, airstrikes alone will not wipe of the capabilities of the Islamic State and whilst the US do have a working relationship with the Iraqi government, the same cannot be said with the Syrian government.

Mapping the Syrian conflict
Source: bbcnews.com

Peace moves has seemed elusive and those arranged in Geneva (Geneva 1 and Geneva 2) between the Syrian opposition and the government ended inconclusively, voiding the wisdom of top diplomats in Koffi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi.

Lessons learnt from the intrigues of the Arab Spring especially in Libya and the Iraqi story after the US invasion of 2003 has proved that overthrowing strong regimes to the mercies of an uncoordinated opposition doesn’t favour the stability of the State either on the short or long run; therefore, it might be tragic to note that at this stage of the conflict, the US is still trying to identify ‘the moderate armed opposition’ to kit with arms in the fight against the Islamic State.

The Syrian conflict at this stage will be best resolved by the use of force against the Islamic State and other extremist groups and political negotiation between the opposition and government. Seeing that the Syrian Opposition does not have control over the activities of the armed opposition (Free Syrian army) and that the armed Opposition in itself do have a concrete command structure, the sustenance of the regime of Bashar al-Assad becomes expedient for the survival and continuity of the Syrian state.

The Syrian people have suffered untold casualties destruction of their homeland and this has had a spiral effect on neighbouring countries. As such, the conflict should be resolved by pragmatic means at this stage forgiving past misdeeds.

THE ADVANCE OF ISIS: IMPLICATIONS OF A NEW REDLINE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

"Rush O Muslims to your state. Yes, it is your state. Rush, because Syria is not for the Syrians, and Iraq is not for the Iraqis,"……. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

On the first day of the Muslim fast which marks the commencement of the month of Ramadan corresponding to 1^st July 2014 or 1^st Ramadan 1435AH, the leader of the neo-caliphate enactment Islamic group also known as ISIS declared an Islamic State in the territories under the control of his group which straddles from Aleppo in Northern Syria to Diyala province in Iraq; effectively nullifying any existing border between Iraq and Syria whilst concomitantly invalidating any government control over these areas in both countries.

ISIS OPERATIONAL PRESENCE ACROSS IRAQ AND SYRIA

These actions were not neoteric, in fact, it had long been beginning to come and what was only left of that precipitate was the effect of that declaration and the harsh realities it meant for the peoples of the affected territories, neighbouring countries, the international diplomatic cosmos of World powers and other Nations of the Planet Earth.

The current civil and political instability in the Eastern Levant was precipitated by the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which toppled a stable Iraqi regime presided by Saddam Hussien, and the evasive consequence of the Arab spring which has perennially condemned Syria to a bitter warfare of attrition. Of all the Countries affected by the Arab Spring, the Syrian case remains most volatile and bloody; claiming fatalities of nearly 200,000 lives, displacing over 2000,000 civilians, and leaving heavy patches of ruins in all cities across the Syrian Urban and rural landscape.

What began as a protest for regime change snowballed into that of sectarian strife pitting the majority Syrian Sunni population against the minority Alawite led Syrian government. With Western powers wary of intervention, the Syrian scenario pitted a proxy warfare with sectarian regional powers sponsoring their military interests. The Syrian government found a ready ally in Iran (a regional Shiite power) and a readymade fighting man power in Hezbollah (a Lebanese based Shiite militant group). In response to the sectarian  dimension of the Syrian conflict, Sunni led militias such as Jabat al Nusra, ISIS (Islamic State in Syria and the Levant) and several others sprang up to fight the ‘infidel’ Alwaite or pro-Shia supported government. In no time, the Syrian conflict metamorphosed from a civil one to a religious one.

Across the Syrian Eastern border in Iraq, the government had been grappling for control of the country since the withdrawal of US and other allied forces. The ensuing unrest in Iraq assumed a sectarian cum religious dimension as the Kurds opted for autonomy whilst the  Sunnis and Shiites grappled for political power. The once repressed Shiites under Sunni Saddam Hussien gained political power being the majority (65% of Iraqis are Shia Muslims) amidst Sunni cries of marginalization. In between the Iraqi political discontent was a wave of pockets of insurgency by Islamic militias against what was seen as an American perpetrated government in Iraq. This insurgency was later mostly exclusively perpetrated by Sunni based militias against Shiite and government interests.

With regional and religious rivalry in the brew, Shiite militias and governments led by Shiites received military and support from Iran whilst Saudi Arabia and other gulf states actively funded Sunni Militias.

AN IMPLOSION OF THE ESTABLISHED ORDER.

With the Syrian situation attaining a stalemate, ISIS (a Sunni led Islamist Militia) seized Raqqa (a provincial capital in Northern Syria) and declared it a model for a proposed burgeoning Islamic State and claiming that they had the entire Middle East at sight for a Caliphate. Taking advantage of the security and political impunity in Iraq, ISIS fighters crossed over and disgraced an established multibillion dollar US funded Iraqi army; seizing Mosul, Tikrit, Anabar and Nineveh provinces in a lightening advance and threatening to match on Baghdad. For reasons best known to ISIS, it has slowed the pace of its advance whilst seeking to consolidate control on the swathes of territory under its control across Syria and Iraq.

IMPLICATIONS

The military exploits of ISIS has had a reverberating effect across the Middle East and even amongst Sunni led governments. The ISIS fighters are just a few kilometres away from the borders of Saudi Arabia and Jordan and providing a new impetus to crumble an already endangered Shiite led Syrian and Iraq government. For once, the quest of ISIS is now seen as a valid threat to an established order in the Middle East.

PERMUTATIONS

All through the wake of the Arab spring, the US and her allies have refrained from directly intervening militarily apart from Libya where air support was used to defeat the Gaddafi government. Rather, western intervention has been through cautious military advisory tactics and equipment (whether lethal or non lethal) to militant group they deem sympathetic.

Whilst tension and mistrust amongst Iran (a regional Shia power) and the rest of a Sunni dominant Arab Middle East remain high, both parties do not want to see a crumbling of established order in their respective domains.

A crumble of established order will add a renewed impetus for Kurdish independence a cause which will distort the boundaries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran—all of which are not ready to lose territory.

Continued heightened tensions will ensure the partition of Syria and Iraq along Sectarian lines, deflating existing borders and threaten the corporate borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia all of which who have tribal affiliations across the borders.

A continued push by ISIS will threaten Jordan and Saudi Arabia and later on Iran and Turkey. Remotely, Israel and Lebanon will come into the fray and it will be hard for the US not to fight.

At this juncture, the bi-polar powers cannot afford to stand arms akimbo. And maybe this explains why Russia has provided Iraq with jets to bomb ISIS positions with a fore running support of Syrian attempt.

Permutations for an ISIS destablized Middle East
Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655977/ISIS-militants-march-Baghdad-trademark-bullet-head-gets-way-control-north.html

In all, the latest trend in the Middle East precipitated by the action of ISIS may precipitate another gun power for a global conflict. Let’s hope Armageddon is not yet here!

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized...... "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."... Barack Obama (20th August 2012)