THE ADVANCE OF ISIS: IMPLICATIONS OF A NEW REDLINE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

"Rush O Muslims to your state. Yes, it is your state. Rush, because Syria is not for the Syrians, and Iraq is not for the Iraqis,"……. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

On the first day of the Muslim fast which marks the commencement of the month of Ramadan corresponding to 1^st July 2014 or 1^st Ramadan 1435AH, the leader of the neo-caliphate enactment Islamic group also known as ISIS declared an Islamic State in the territories under the control of his group which straddles from Aleppo in Northern Syria to Diyala province in Iraq; effectively nullifying any existing border between Iraq and Syria whilst concomitantly invalidating any government control over these areas in both countries.

ISIS OPERATIONAL PRESENCE ACROSS IRAQ AND SYRIA

These actions were not neoteric, in fact, it had long been beginning to come and what was only left of that precipitate was the effect of that declaration and the harsh realities it meant for the peoples of the affected territories, neighbouring countries, the international diplomatic cosmos of World powers and other Nations of the Planet Earth.

The current civil and political instability in the Eastern Levant was precipitated by the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which toppled a stable Iraqi regime presided by Saddam Hussien, and the evasive consequence of the Arab spring which has perennially condemned Syria to a bitter warfare of attrition. Of all the Countries affected by the Arab Spring, the Syrian case remains most volatile and bloody; claiming fatalities of nearly 200,000 lives, displacing over 2000,000 civilians, and leaving heavy patches of ruins in all cities across the Syrian Urban and rural landscape.

What began as a protest for regime change snowballed into that of sectarian strife pitting the majority Syrian Sunni population against the minority Alawite led Syrian government. With Western powers wary of intervention, the Syrian scenario pitted a proxy warfare with sectarian regional powers sponsoring their military interests. The Syrian government found a ready ally in Iran (a regional Shiite power) and a readymade fighting man power in Hezbollah (a Lebanese based Shiite militant group). In response to the sectarian  dimension of the Syrian conflict, Sunni led militias such as Jabat al Nusra, ISIS (Islamic State in Syria and the Levant) and several others sprang up to fight the ‘infidel’ Alwaite or pro-Shia supported government. In no time, the Syrian conflict metamorphosed from a civil one to a religious one.

Across the Syrian Eastern border in Iraq, the government had been grappling for control of the country since the withdrawal of US and other allied forces. The ensuing unrest in Iraq assumed a sectarian cum religious dimension as the Kurds opted for autonomy whilst the  Sunnis and Shiites grappled for political power. The once repressed Shiites under Sunni Saddam Hussien gained political power being the majority (65% of Iraqis are Shia Muslims) amidst Sunni cries of marginalization. In between the Iraqi political discontent was a wave of pockets of insurgency by Islamic militias against what was seen as an American perpetrated government in Iraq. This insurgency was later mostly exclusively perpetrated by Sunni based militias against Shiite and government interests.

With regional and religious rivalry in the brew, Shiite militias and governments led by Shiites received military and support from Iran whilst Saudi Arabia and other gulf states actively funded Sunni Militias.

AN IMPLOSION OF THE ESTABLISHED ORDER.

With the Syrian situation attaining a stalemate, ISIS (a Sunni led Islamist Militia) seized Raqqa (a provincial capital in Northern Syria) and declared it a model for a proposed burgeoning Islamic State and claiming that they had the entire Middle East at sight for a Caliphate. Taking advantage of the security and political impunity in Iraq, ISIS fighters crossed over and disgraced an established multibillion dollar US funded Iraqi army; seizing Mosul, Tikrit, Anabar and Nineveh provinces in a lightening advance and threatening to match on Baghdad. For reasons best known to ISIS, it has slowed the pace of its advance whilst seeking to consolidate control on the swathes of territory under its control across Syria and Iraq.

IMPLICATIONS

The military exploits of ISIS has had a reverberating effect across the Middle East and even amongst Sunni led governments. The ISIS fighters are just a few kilometres away from the borders of Saudi Arabia and Jordan and providing a new impetus to crumble an already endangered Shiite led Syrian and Iraq government. For once, the quest of ISIS is now seen as a valid threat to an established order in the Middle East.

PERMUTATIONS

All through the wake of the Arab spring, the US and her allies have refrained from directly intervening militarily apart from Libya where air support was used to defeat the Gaddafi government. Rather, western intervention has been through cautious military advisory tactics and equipment (whether lethal or non lethal) to militant group they deem sympathetic.

Whilst tension and mistrust amongst Iran (a regional Shia power) and the rest of a Sunni dominant Arab Middle East remain high, both parties do not want to see a crumbling of established order in their respective domains.

A crumble of established order will add a renewed impetus for Kurdish independence a cause which will distort the boundaries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran—all of which are not ready to lose territory.

Continued heightened tensions will ensure the partition of Syria and Iraq along Sectarian lines, deflating existing borders and threaten the corporate borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia all of which who have tribal affiliations across the borders.

A continued push by ISIS will threaten Jordan and Saudi Arabia and later on Iran and Turkey. Remotely, Israel and Lebanon will come into the fray and it will be hard for the US not to fight.

At this juncture, the bi-polar powers cannot afford to stand arms akimbo. And maybe this explains why Russia has provided Iraq with jets to bomb ISIS positions with a fore running support of Syrian attempt.

Permutations for an ISIS destablized Middle East
Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655977/ISIS-militants-march-Baghdad-trademark-bullet-head-gets-way-control-north.html

In all, the latest trend in the Middle East precipitated by the action of ISIS may precipitate another gun power for a global conflict. Let’s hope Armageddon is not yet here!

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized...... "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."... Barack Obama (20th August 2012)

AN IMPLODING SYRIA: IMPLICATIONS

AN IMPLODING SYRIA: IMPLICATIONS

‘In a guerrilla war the rebels only have not to lose to win; however, unless a regular army is clearly winning, it will lose.’-- Henry Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State).

When Syria caught up with the warmth of the Arab spring in March 2011, all thought it would be a matter of days/weeks as seen in Tunisia then calm will return back to the streets of Dimashq.

Instead, the Syrian scenario has defied all prescriptions of top UN diplomats in Kofi Annan who after several unsuccessful mediations had to resign. Then came Lakhdar Brahimi as the new UN envoy to Syria; but he had to admit the tough task ahead of him when he clearly spelt out that the Syrian crises was turning to a civil conflict.

Indeed, what started as a solidarity Arab spring protest in Deraa ended up being fatal on the 22^nd of April 2011, when 72 protesters were killed by security forces firing on protesters. Since then, mass killings have been a common show piece in all concerning Syria. From Jisr al-Shughour, Jabal al-Zawiya, Homs, Aleppo, Houla, Darayya to Baniyas et al; it’s been a common story of fatalities with the Syrian Government trading the blame on ‘armed gangs’ (Syrian rebel groups) as being responsible.

Whilst reports from Syria are most times independently unverifiable, it’s common consensus that the Syrian crises has reached a destructive peak as seen in the streams of refugees pouring into refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey. Estimated figures put the Syrian war causalities at 70,000 dead and over a million refugees. With the parties to the conflict bickering unendingly, casualty and fatality figures will continue to soar at an already seeming detriment to the future of Syria and the ever volatile Middle East.

Most intriguing and despicable to the unending conflict are the several unseemly proxy actions of world and regional powers who for reasons best known to their foreign policy interest have helped continue the Syrian conflict in full blast. What started as a heavy government response to protesters, led to army defections, suicide blasts, foreign linked fighters and recently and Al-Queda connection all of which does have a devastating imploding effect on Syria.

Whilst the Syrian conflict itself has been self destroying, the question of arming rebel groups is a conscience quiz in the hearts of the war weary western powers. With the ripples of Afghanistan and Iraq still fresh, there’s definitely not going to be any ‘western boot on the ground’. Arming the rebels is another teaser! And the question is who are they? On one hand is the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) who most powers (regional and western) have recognized as the legitimate Syrian government and on the other hand is the Free Syrian Army (a loose network of armed men fighting against the government). The shocker to the Syrian opposition is the incoherence of the opposition on both the political and military fronts. In fact, one may borrow the descriptive parlance of the Syrian government which refers to them as ‘Armed gangs’- A loose network of renegade soldiers, ‘men with guns’, foreign fighters and jihadists as represented by the Al-Nusra front who have only recently announced their cohesion into the main Al-Queda body. It’s obvious that though the opposition (political and military) are united against the Assad regime, the same cannot be said of their ideologies!

Another intrigue to the conflict is Syria’s vast stock piles of Chemical weapons. Known to be a deterrent to Israel, there are fears about it falling into unsafe hands. Most bothered about this is Israel who among other things, fear a massive armament of Hezbollah with ‘game changing weapons’. The US has since said any use of Chemical weapons will in effect demonstrate the crossing of a ‘red line’. Israel has since carried out series of air strikes on Syrian targets and what it believes are weapon being transferred to Hezbollah

Israeli Jets setting off to hit Syrian targets Source: BBC news

Hezbollah draws a multidimensional issue to the conflict. Already, it’s no more news that its fighters are actively engaged in the Syrian conflict providing much needed man power for Assad’s forces. That role in itself is another complex whole! Hezbollah is a Lebanon based Shiite militia wholly funded by Syria and Iran to provide much needed home aggression to the Zionist enemy-Israel. With its fighters actively engaged in the Syria and Israeli planes taking to the skies to hunt targets, it might just be a matter of time before Israel is dragged to a full scale war with whom? Maybe Hezbollah, but the battle ground would definitely be wider this time around. It will strew from southern Lebanon to Syria and with a Shiite led government already in place in an unstable Iraq, it might just provide the needed base for a regional conflict between Israel and ‘Greater Hezbollah’ (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran). An already brewing sectarian conflict between the dominant minority Alawite offshoot of Shia Islam and the majority Sunnis cannot be brushed aside too.

A conflict laden Syria amid her conflict sensitive neighbours Source: BBC news

The indecision of western powers in arming the opposition must be given some thoughts; or how else will the Syrian scenario look with Assad out of power and lots of arms in the street with no decisive central government? The Iraqi situation answers the question.

On a critical note is the humanitarian dimension of the Syrian conflict. Whilst it has in itself been self destroying in terms of social and cultural infrastructure, Syrian males continue to provide the man power for the fighting, and Syrian females due to worsening economic situation caused by the conflict, are into haphazard marriage contracts where rich Arab males pay heavy bride prices for Syrian ladies in order to provide much needed funds for survival of the already dismembered Syrian families. Sadly such females end up in unhappy/ slave marriages.

It’s sad to write about the unfolding Syrian quagmire. One only hopes that the talk between the US and Russian foreign secretaries yield positive actions, else the third world war alert will shift from the activities in the Korean peninsula to the Middle East!