AN IMPLODING SYRIA: IMPLICATIONS

AN IMPLODING SYRIA: IMPLICATIONS

‘In a guerrilla war the rebels only have not to lose to win; however, unless a regular army is clearly winning, it will lose.’-- Henry Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State).

When Syria caught up with the warmth of the Arab spring in March 2011, all thought it would be a matter of days/weeks as seen in Tunisia then calm will return back to the streets of Dimashq.

Instead, the Syrian scenario has defied all prescriptions of top UN diplomats in Kofi Annan who after several unsuccessful mediations had to resign. Then came Lakhdar Brahimi as the new UN envoy to Syria; but he had to admit the tough task ahead of him when he clearly spelt out that the Syrian crises was turning to a civil conflict.

Indeed, what started as a solidarity Arab spring protest in Deraa ended up being fatal on the 22^nd of April 2011, when 72 protesters were killed by security forces firing on protesters. Since then, mass killings have been a common show piece in all concerning Syria. From Jisr al-Shughour, Jabal al-Zawiya, Homs, Aleppo, Houla, Darayya to Baniyas et al; it’s been a common story of fatalities with the Syrian Government trading the blame on ‘armed gangs’ (Syrian rebel groups) as being responsible.

Whilst reports from Syria are most times independently unverifiable, it’s common consensus that the Syrian crises has reached a destructive peak as seen in the streams of refugees pouring into refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey. Estimated figures put the Syrian war causalities at 70,000 dead and over a million refugees. With the parties to the conflict bickering unendingly, casualty and fatality figures will continue to soar at an already seeming detriment to the future of Syria and the ever volatile Middle East.

Most intriguing and despicable to the unending conflict are the several unseemly proxy actions of world and regional powers who for reasons best known to their foreign policy interest have helped continue the Syrian conflict in full blast. What started as a heavy government response to protesters, led to army defections, suicide blasts, foreign linked fighters and recently and Al-Queda connection all of which does have a devastating imploding effect on Syria.

Whilst the Syrian conflict itself has been self destroying, the question of arming rebel groups is a conscience quiz in the hearts of the war weary western powers. With the ripples of Afghanistan and Iraq still fresh, there’s definitely not going to be any ‘western boot on the ground’. Arming the rebels is another teaser! And the question is who are they? On one hand is the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) who most powers (regional and western) have recognized as the legitimate Syrian government and on the other hand is the Free Syrian Army (a loose network of armed men fighting against the government). The shocker to the Syrian opposition is the incoherence of the opposition on both the political and military fronts. In fact, one may borrow the descriptive parlance of the Syrian government which refers to them as ‘Armed gangs’- A loose network of renegade soldiers, ‘men with guns’, foreign fighters and jihadists as represented by the Al-Nusra front who have only recently announced their cohesion into the main Al-Queda body. It’s obvious that though the opposition (political and military) are united against the Assad regime, the same cannot be said of their ideologies!

Another intrigue to the conflict is Syria’s vast stock piles of Chemical weapons. Known to be a deterrent to Israel, there are fears about it falling into unsafe hands. Most bothered about this is Israel who among other things, fear a massive armament of Hezbollah with ‘game changing weapons’. The US has since said any use of Chemical weapons will in effect demonstrate the crossing of a ‘red line’. Israel has since carried out series of air strikes on Syrian targets and what it believes are weapon being transferred to Hezbollah

Israeli Jets setting off to hit Syrian targets Source: BBC news

Hezbollah draws a multidimensional issue to the conflict. Already, it’s no more news that its fighters are actively engaged in the Syrian conflict providing much needed man power for Assad’s forces. That role in itself is another complex whole! Hezbollah is a Lebanon based Shiite militia wholly funded by Syria and Iran to provide much needed home aggression to the Zionist enemy-Israel. With its fighters actively engaged in the Syria and Israeli planes taking to the skies to hunt targets, it might just be a matter of time before Israel is dragged to a full scale war with whom? Maybe Hezbollah, but the battle ground would definitely be wider this time around. It will strew from southern Lebanon to Syria and with a Shiite led government already in place in an unstable Iraq, it might just provide the needed base for a regional conflict between Israel and ‘Greater Hezbollah’ (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran). An already brewing sectarian conflict between the dominant minority Alawite offshoot of Shia Islam and the majority Sunnis cannot be brushed aside too.

A conflict laden Syria amid her conflict sensitive neighbours Source: BBC news

The indecision of western powers in arming the opposition must be given some thoughts; or how else will the Syrian scenario look with Assad out of power and lots of arms in the street with no decisive central government? The Iraqi situation answers the question.

On a critical note is the humanitarian dimension of the Syrian conflict. Whilst it has in itself been self destroying in terms of social and cultural infrastructure, Syrian males continue to provide the man power for the fighting, and Syrian females due to worsening economic situation caused by the conflict, are into haphazard marriage contracts where rich Arab males pay heavy bride prices for Syrian ladies in order to provide much needed funds for survival of the already dismembered Syrian families. Sadly such females end up in unhappy/ slave marriages.

It’s sad to write about the unfolding Syrian quagmire. One only hopes that the talk between the US and Russian foreign secretaries yield positive actions, else the third world war alert will shift from the activities in the Korean peninsula to the Middle East!