"Rush O Muslims to your state. Yes, it is your state. Rush,
because Syria is not for the Syrians, and Iraq is not for the Iraqis,"……. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
On the first
day of the Muslim fast which marks the commencement of the month of Ramadan
corresponding to 1st July 2014 or 1st Ramadan 1435AH, the
leader of the neo-caliphate
enactment Islamic group also known as ISIS declared an Islamic State in the
territories under the control of his group which straddles from Aleppo in
Northern Syria to Diyala province in Iraq; effectively nullifying any existing
border between Iraq and Syria whilst concomitantly invalidating any government
control over these areas in both countries.
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| ISIS OPERATIONAL PRESENCE ACROSS IRAQ AND SYRIA |
These actions were not neoteric, in
fact, it had long been beginning to come and what was only left of that
precipitate was the effect of that declaration and the harsh realities it meant
for the peoples of the affected territories, neighbouring countries, the
international diplomatic cosmos of World powers and other Nations of the Planet
Earth.
The current civil and political
instability in the Eastern Levant was precipitated by the US led invasion of
Iraq in 2003, which toppled a stable Iraqi regime presided by Saddam Hussien,
and the evasive consequence of the Arab
spring which has perennially condemned Syria to a bitter warfare of
attrition. Of all the Countries affected by the Arab Spring, the Syrian case
remains most volatile and bloody; claiming fatalities of nearly 200,000 lives,
displacing over 2000,000 civilians, and leaving heavy patches of ruins in all
cities across the Syrian Urban and rural landscape.
What began as a protest for regime
change snowballed into that of sectarian strife pitting the majority Syrian
Sunni population against the minority Alawite led Syrian government. With
Western powers wary of intervention, the Syrian scenario pitted a proxy warfare
with sectarian regional powers sponsoring their military interests. The Syrian
government found a ready ally in Iran (a regional Shiite power) and
a readymade fighting man power in Hezbollah (a Lebanese based Shiite militant
group). In response to the sectarian
dimension of the Syrian conflict, Sunni led militias
such as Jabat al Nusra, ISIS (Islamic State in Syria and the Levant) and
several others sprang up to fight the ‘infidel’ Alwaite or pro-Shia supported
government. In no time, the Syrian conflict metamorphosed from a civil one to a
religious one.
Across the Syrian Eastern border in
Iraq, the government had been grappling for control of the country since the
withdrawal of US and other allied forces. The ensuing unrest in Iraq assumed a
sectarian cum religious dimension as the Kurds opted for autonomy whilst
the Sunnis and Shiites grappled
for political power. The once repressed Shiites under Sunni Saddam Hussien
gained political power being the majority (65% of Iraqis are Shia Muslims)
amidst Sunni cries of marginalization. In between the Iraqi political
discontent was a wave of pockets of insurgency by Islamic militias against what
was seen as an American perpetrated government in Iraq. This insurgency was
later mostly exclusively perpetrated by Sunni based militias
against Shiite and government interests.
With regional and religious rivalry
in the brew, Shiite
militias and governments led by Shiites received
military and support from Iran whilst Saudi Arabia and other gulf states
actively funded Sunni Militias.
AN IMPLOSION OF THE ESTABLISHED ORDER.
With the Syrian situation attaining a
stalemate, ISIS (a Sunni led Islamist Militia) seized Raqqa (a provincial
capital in Northern Syria) and declared it a model for a proposed burgeoning
Islamic State and claiming that they had the entire Middle East at sight for a
Caliphate. Taking advantage of the security and political impunity in Iraq,
ISIS fighters crossed over and disgraced an established multibillion dollar US
funded Iraqi army; seizing Mosul, Tikrit, Anabar and Nineveh provinces in a
lightening advance and threatening to match on Baghdad. For reasons best known
to ISIS, it has slowed the pace of its advance whilst seeking to consolidate
control on the swathes of territory under its control across Syria and Iraq.
IMPLICATIONS
The military exploits of ISIS has had
a reverberating effect across the Middle East and even amongst Sunni led
governments. The ISIS fighters are just a few kilometres away from the borders
of Saudi Arabia and Jordan and providing a new impetus to crumble an already
endangered Shiite led Syrian and Iraq government. For once, the quest of ISIS
is now seen as a valid threat to an established order in the Middle East.
PERMUTATIONS
All through the wake of the Arab
spring, the US and her allies have refrained from directly intervening
militarily apart from Libya where air support was used to defeat the Gaddafi
government. Rather, western intervention has been through cautious military
advisory tactics and equipment (whether lethal or non lethal) to militant group
they deem sympathetic.
Whilst tension and mistrust amongst
Iran (a regional Shia power) and the rest of a Sunni dominant Arab Middle East
remain high, both parties do not want to see a crumbling of established order
in their respective domains.
A crumble of established order will
add a renewed impetus for Kurdish independence a cause which will distort the
boundaries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran—all of which are not ready to lose
territory.
Continued heightened tensions will
ensure the partition of Syria and Iraq along Sectarian lines, deflating
existing borders and threaten the corporate borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia
all of which who have tribal affiliations across the borders.
A continued push by ISIS will
threaten Jordan and Saudi Arabia and later on Iran and Turkey. Remotely, Israel
and Lebanon will come into the fray and it will be hard for the US not to
fight.
At this juncture, the bi-polar powers
cannot afford to stand arms akimbo. And maybe this explains why Russia has
provided Iraq with jets to bomb ISIS positions with a fore running support of
Syrian attempt.
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| Permutations for an ISIS destablized Middle East Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655977/ISIS-militants-march-Baghdad-trademark-bullet-head-gets-way-control-north.html |
In all, the latest trend in the
Middle East precipitated by the action of ISIS may precipitate another gun
power for a global conflict. Let’s hope Armageddon is not yet here!
"We have been
very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole
bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized...... "That would change my calculus.
That would change my equation."... Barack Obama (20th August 2012)
