“The world is full of contradictions today. We need to
be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly,
there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and
regional security is able to protect us from upheavals.... The international
and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organisations are
also going through difficult times..”.... Vladmir Putin (Valdai
Club speech, October 2014)
From a tale of twist and turns, the Syrian conflict has metamorphosed
from that of an Arab Spring solidarity protest to a full blown civil war with
religious undertones, serving a practical laboratory for proxy
warfare pitting regional and World powers against each other.
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| Illustration of the current Syrian conflict trend Source:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/16/world/middleeast/untangling-the-overlapping-conflicts-in-the-syrian-war.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0 |
Like an inselberg,
the Assad regime has weathered the odds against it albeit the resultant carnage
on the Syrian human and infrastructural milieu consequentially, of that Country’s
22million pre-war population, over 250,000 have been killed, about 7.6 million
are internally displaced, 4million have fled the Country’s borders and have
increasingly fuelled the European migrant/refugee crises. As such, on the
current global scale, one out of every four refugees globally is Syrian.
Defying all peace
mediation and palliative odds, especially with the active participation of
Russia, the Syrian case is actively taking the course of leaving the last bleeding man be declared as victor; for in series of mis-calculated foreign intervention from regional and
global powers, the resultant has been a creation of hydra-headed belligerents
with no clear vision for the sustenance of the Syrian State.
With Western powers
standing aloof at the onset of the Syrian conflict, regional powers of the Middle
East championed by Saudi Arabia footed
the belligerent cause against the Syrian government in terms of funding and
arms. Seeing an opportunity for a balance of power, the Iranian government
shored up support for its alleged
Shiite spiritual ally in opposition against what it saw as an unbecoming
resurging Sunni dominance from the Arab Spring. In the end, rebel groups funded
by the Saudi Arabia led coalition of Middle East powers metamorphosed into hardliner
Jihadist groups which in turn became a menacing threat to religious tolerance
within the region.
Nevertheless, Western
powers saw no glory in changing their stance against the Assad regime, choosing
instead to derecognize the Assad government in favour of the opposition Free
Syria Army. In spite of this, the Assad regime was learnt credence as it
labelled the belligerent opposition as ‘terrorists’ and in the real sense of fact, the Syrian political Opposition had no control over the fighters and a times, the opposition
belligerents had had to turn the guns on each other as there were gaps in central command control and ideological/religious stance to the
conflict.
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| A caricature cartoon of Russia's Putin propping up Syria's Assad Source:http://eastwestpublic.com/2015/10/09/russias-syrian-bombing-gives-boost-to-iran/ |
Amidst the ensuing
chaos, Russia stood arms akimbo, preferring to support the Syrian government
with resolutions and its veto power at the United Nations. As such, when the
United States threatened the Syrian government with airstrikes if it crossed
the ‘red
line’ in the use of Chemical weapons, Russia pushed for the decommissioning of
Syria’s Chemical weapons arsenal which in turn was surprisingly successful.
For four long years
since the start of the Syrian conflict, it seems unending as it has defied the
cerebral diplomatic intrigues of the World’s top diplomats in Koffi Annan and
Lakhdar Brahimi. Not even peace
summits in the historic peace convention city of Geneva have brought any
beacon of hope to resolving the Syrian conflict.
With all parties and
proxies standing firm on their lines and not
ready to yield ground, the Syrian conflict became embroiled in a stalemate, threatening to partition the country alongside the line of control of
the belligerents. Not even the menacing advance the Islamic State (IS)
identified as a common enemy to all parties in the conflict has united the belligerents. Instead, each belligerent has
sought to deal with the Islamic State individually whilst pursing their
individual causes against each other.
With the Syrian
president openly admitting that he might have to concede
territory to the enemy in order to consolidate its stronghold in the face
of declining manpower, the Russians have seized the initiative to step up military support for the regime, whilst claiming to be doing its bit in fighting terrorism and Islamic
extremism as manifested by the Islamic State.
Whilst the United
States and its NATO allies have stepped up sortie
attacks on Islamic State positions and refusing
to collaborate with the Syrian government, rather choosing to identify ‘moderate Syrian rebels’ to train and arm as foot soldiers, the
tactics has apparently failed, as the Islamic State keep capturing more
territory and the US trained rebels keep melting away in battle against ISIS
and gifting
the enemy military hardware.
Russia on the other
hand has chosen to identify with the Syrian government in the fight against the
Islamic State and as such, entered into a
de
facto coalition with all parties supporting the Syrian
government such as Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah.
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| Source: www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34474362 |
Despite the
identification of a common enemy in ISIS by all belligerents, they have failed
to unite under a common cause. This calls to question the historicity of
Western powers if they have lessons from World War two when a coalition of
Allied powers in United States, United Kingdom and Russia had to fight
concomitantly to ensure the defeat of NAZI Germany, and the happenstances
thereafter which resulted in the cold war.
As regional and
global powers pursue their interests in the Syrian conflict, it must be noted
that an inflammable situation which could ignite into a wider conflict is in
the offing, as these conflicting powers could accidentally turn their weapons on
one another.
Seventy years after
the end of the most devastating war in Human history, there are still several
applicable lessons to be learnt from World War Two. Regional and Global powers
party to the Syrian conflict will profit the cause of global peace by taking revision
courses from that epoch.
“The crisis has reached a point where, unless we
end the war, the country will slowly empty itself — a haemorrhaging of its
brightest and best, it’s young and old, escaping unspeakable horrors in the
largest refugee migration since World War II, until all that will be left are
the fighters”..... KIM GHATTAS
