Syria—What next for the revolution?

The Syrian conflict—an offshoot of the famous January 2011 Arab Spring which shook regimes in the Arab world has featured deadly twists and turns since it was caught in the winds of the Arab spring since March 2011.

Starting with mild solidarity protests in favour of the Arab Spring in other Arab nations, the protests metamorphosized into anti-government protests in major Syrian cities. Undecided on how to respond to the protesters, the Syrian government responded with counter protest actions by pro-government supporters and later quelling anti-government protest with outright use of force! The Syrian government forces began firing live rounds into anti-government protest groups! And that became the last straw that broke the camel’s back. The Syrian senario became that of an irreversible conflict senario. Defecting government troops and others ready to take up arms against the government formed the Free Syrian Army. The opposition made some political arrangements and at a point, it was recognized by the Western powers and most Arab countries as the legitimate government of Syria--- but do they really control the fighting wing, let alone the contiguous swathes of territory?

From pockets of skirmishes and uprisings, the Syrian conflict has grown to a full blown conflict or sectarian civil war leaving much of Syria in ruins. Over the last few months, Aleppo, Homs, Idlib, Hama, Idlib, et al, have had parts or almost all of their environs in ruins.

                                                   A devastated Khalidiya district in Homs

With the Syrian conflict taking a sectarian pattern featuring the majority Sunni Population against the minority ruling Alawi and the foreign implications to the conflict, it’s difficult to see an amicable end at sight.

An aerial view of the Khalidiya district of Homs (the Home of the Syrian revolution)

Much to the displeasure and disgust of the majority Sunni Arab neighbours, the Syrian government has received technical and manpower support from Iran and its proxy militia-Hezbollah. At the level of the United Nations, China and especially Russia have shown unwavering support for the Syrian regime of Bashir Al-Assad.

Whilst the Syrian conflict started amid the controversies that engulfed the Western involvement in Libya, the United States, Britain and France were very cautious in militarily supporting the opposition cause; inferring that military support from them will happen only when the Syrian government is seen to have used Chemical weapons against it people.

At the onset of the conflict with fatality figures still in its hundreds, it was thought that it would only be a matter of time before the Assad regime tows the line of Egypt’s Mubarak and Tunisia’s Ben Ali especially with defections of some high ranking government and military officials. Intriguingly, the government has withstood all odds and it appears there will be no letting down in the face of the armed opposition. In fact, it has blamed the armed uprising against it as the work of ‘foreign armed gangs’ and terrorists!. While this statement may be disputable at the onset of the conflict, it’s hard to decipher the allegiances of the armed Syrian opposition. Initially starting out as renegade soldiers and men with munitions; the armed Syrian opposition now comprises of foreign fighters prominent among them-Jihadist from the Al-Nusra front which does have links to Al Queda.

At the early stages of the Syrian conflict, with the Assad regime not buckling with rising armed insurrection, a strategic and tactical arming of the Syrian opposition would have most likely turned the tide. As the conflict wore on to a stalemate, a strategic boost in weaponry and manpower support from Iran and Hezbollah and then influx of Shiite fighters from the Iraqi insurgency has boosted government morale as seen in the takeover of the strategic town of Quasir. This victory for the government troops have spurred up action for military action against other rebel held towns/cities prominent among which is Aleppo and Homs.

On the side of the armed opposition it remains unclear if there’s any unity with the political opposition which seem in disarray especially with the resignation of top shots. Boosted by Sunni militias and Jihadist fighters of Al-Queda leanings from around the middle-east and even world wide, it remains unclear who will receive armed support from western backers if it does eventually comes

Although heavily funded by Sunni Arab led governments top of which is Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Opposition still needs strategic armaments especially significant air support if they will score a military victory  against Assad’s forces

On the part of the Western powers that have already recognized the Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, they have had to reconsider their support in the face of the much detested Alqueda fighting mercenaries spurring up the armed opposition. The question they have to answer is who will they arm?

On the part of the government of Assad, they might claim some vindication now in their reference to the armed Syrian opposition as ‘armed gangs and terrorists’ from the onset of the conflict. And one thing remains clear! In the light of numerous fighting groups making up the Syrian opposition, if they do score military victory at last, the Syrian scenario won’t be different from what obtains in Iraq and Libya. Surely, it will be another recipe for the sectarian disintegration of Syria. On the other hand, after much detest against the Assad regime with so much blood spilled, would it be time for the Western Sunni powers to concede to Assad? After all, his government has stood firm and can only apparently reunite the country’s minority and majority groups sparing sectarian division..

Whilst the Western powers are trying to identify who to arm amongst the Syrian armed opposition, and the Russians, Iranians and Chinese staunchly unwavering in their support for Assad; wouldn’t it be time to consider the outcome of any endgame to the conflict?

Does the world need another addition to perennial disintegrated sectarian states especially in the Middle East awash with weapons? Or a peaceful state.. Whether autocratic or democratic provided there’s no bloodshed on a massive scale?

The answer to this begs the question. Let all players to the conflict ponder on their conscience!