Resolving Al-Shabaab's Menace in Kenya

"Our territorial integrity is threatened with serious security threats of terrorism. We cannot allow this to happen at all............ It means we are now going to pursue the enemy, who are the al-Shabaab, to wherever they will be, even in their country," Kenya's Internal Security Minister George Saitoti (2011)

The shooting spree that left about 147 people dead at Kenya’s Garissa University imbued the trade mark of an Al-Shabaab terrorist attack. Being the latest, Kenya has experienced several of such notably among which was the Nairobi Westgate Shopping Mall attack of September 2013.

Bodies of slain students strewn at a Hostel in Kenya's Garissa University
Source:buzzkenya.com/kenyan-university-attack-victims-bodies-still-on-school-ground-face-down-and-shot-in-back-of-head/

Bordered by a politically unstable neighbour which is referred to in some quarters as the ‘World’s eternal headache’, Somalia is home to the notorious Al-Shabaab movement which thrives there no thanks to the lack of an effective central government authority since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991.

A divided Somalia with different spheres of control
Source:http://springtimeofnations.blogspot.com/2012/10/northern-mali-and-gates-of-hell-flemish.html

Ever since the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998, Kenya has since become a high risk target for terrorist attacks and it has since then experienced several.

The Al-Shabaab (Arabic word for ‘the youth’) movement grew from the ashes of what was left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) that sought to establish central authority in Somalia in 2005. Fearing radical Islamic expansionism owing to the declaration of Sharia law and a defacto Islamic Caliphate by the ICU, their reign was cut short by an Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006 with the motive of curtailing a renewed secessionist agitation of Ethiopian Somalis in Ethiopia’s Ogaden province and buoyed by US fears of an Al Queda haven in Somalia.

Upon the dismantlement of the ICU, it was hoped that the internationally backed TFG (Transitional Federal Government) formed to centrally administer Somalia in 2004 but based in Kenya (due to security issues) will assume and begin to assert governmental authority in Somalia. Not even the transfer of the seat of the TFG from Kenya to Mogadishu could win the hearts of the dismantled ICU. Though some warlords and ICU members joined the TFG, greater members of the youth wing of the ICU transmuted to form the Al-Shabaab movement whose mission was to neutralize and abolish the authority of the TFG and drive out foreign forces backing the TFG from Somali soil.

Meleed in the ensuing conflict orchestrated by Al-Shabaab, refugees poured into Kenyan soil and were sheltered at Dadaab. Following the commitment of the Burundian and Ugandan governments to send troops to Somalia to back the TFG in the fight for territorial control against Al-Shabaab, the movement launched its first attack outside Somali soil in the bombing of a football viewing centre in Kampala (Uganda’s capital) during the 2010 world cup final match.

The renewed outpour of Somali refugees into Kenya was also accompanied by diffused incursions of Al-Shabaab into Kenyan territory, a resultant of which saw an increase in the occurrence of kidnappings of foreigners in North Eastern Kenya.

Tourism being a key industry in Kenya, and Nairobi a host to significant UN presence, including many international and local NGOs involved in humanitarian relief and other activities; there were increased concerns about the Kidnapping trend especially when several Europeans were seized in the Lamu area in September and October 2011, a resultant which hit the  tourism industry hard. The last straw was when two Spanish aid workers with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) were kidnapped in the Dadaab refugee camp, near the Kenya-Somalia border, on 13th October 2011. After this incident, the Kenyan government ordered a full scale invasion Somalia with the aim of neutralizing Al-Shabaab and creating a buffer zone by establishing an autonomous Somali government at the Juba/Shebelle region to act as a defensive bulwark against cross-border incursions by Al-Shabaab in Northern Kenya. For this Kenyan initiative, the country became a target for Al-Shabaab attacks ever since and the Garissa mass killing is one of several of such.

The proposed Kenyan buffer sphere of influence in Somalia
Source: blog.crisisgroup.org/africa/2013/05/21/jubaland-in-jeopardy-the-uneasy-path-to-state-building-in-somalia/

Neutralizing guerrilla insurgency has been a hard task to accomplish by the best of the world’s armies, and as such, the Kenyan Al-Shabaab experience is not a new phenomenon.

Neutralizing the Al-Shabaab menace will essentially entail proffering a permanent solution to the Somali problem. The age long regional mistrust which bore the Kenya-Ethiopia defence pact of 1964  intrinsically targetting Somalia must be brought to bear to include Somalia in the fray. Regional powers of East Africa should come to respect Somalia’s distinctive ethno-religious identity which places Islam at the centre of Somali culture and thus any Somali government must be inclusive of all faction with minimal influence from regional powers. Only then will Somalia’s Al-Shabaab stop being a regional menace.

Regional Developments In The Battle For Syria

In an unfolding tragic tale of twists and turns, the Syrian conflict has transmuted from that of a solidarity show of support for the Arab Spring in 2011 to that of a continuous conflagrative self destruction perpetrated by a cesspool of several armed opposition factions majorly under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), several Jihadi groups notable among which are the Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State (IS); all of which though disunited on the battle front, are fighting a common cause of overthrowing the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Since 2011, when the conflict started, it was insinuated that the Syrian regime will fall, like that of Tunisia and Egypt within a couple of months. As protests against the government simmered, it was met with brute response from the security forces and that gave birth to the armed opposition mostly made up disaffected government soldiers under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). With a resolute government not ready to stand down, the scenario turned from that of protest scenes to a full scale conflict.

As world powers (US, UK, France, China and Russia) bickered on resolutions and counter resolutions to resolve the ensuing conflict, their actions and inaction buoyed by an unstable neighbouring Iraq facing a Jihadi insurgency turned the tide of the conflict to that of an unfolding grotesque. Jihadi fighters under the platform of the Islamic State or ISIS and the Al-Nusra front with a vision of creating an Islamic Caliphate in the entire Middle East launched cross border incursions into Syria. For the Jihadists they had two enemies; the Syrian government and the armed opposition forces. On the long run, the Islamic State (IS) gained much ground and declared a caliphate on conquered territories covering Iraq and Syria.

Haunted by the ripples of past military campaigns in the Middle East notably Iraq, the US and the Western powers though yearning for the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad dithered in active military support for the Syrian Opposition and with the Syrian regime finding active support from Russia, there was no blithe to the aggression of the opposition. As such, the Syrian conflict was left to run its brutal self destructive cause with the hope that the struggle would be resolved on the battle field.

The rise of the Islamic State kitted with sophisticated weaponry captured from the US kitted Iraqi army has changed the face of the conflict. With the capture of large swathes of territory across Iraq and Syria by this group, they seem poised to give a knockout blow to what is left of the regimes in Iraq and Syria and then expanding their conquest beyond. Faced with this threat and brutal executions of hostages by the Islamic state, the US together with a coalition of Western and Arab Countries have begun to take military action, launching airstrikes against IS targets. However, airstrikes alone will not wipe of the capabilities of the Islamic State and whilst the US do have a working relationship with the Iraqi government, the same cannot be said with the Syrian government.

Mapping the Syrian conflict
Source: bbcnews.com

Peace moves has seemed elusive and those arranged in Geneva (Geneva 1 and Geneva 2) between the Syrian opposition and the government ended inconclusively, voiding the wisdom of top diplomats in Koffi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi.

Lessons learnt from the intrigues of the Arab Spring especially in Libya and the Iraqi story after the US invasion of 2003 has proved that overthrowing strong regimes to the mercies of an uncoordinated opposition doesn’t favour the stability of the State either on the short or long run; therefore, it might be tragic to note that at this stage of the conflict, the US is still trying to identify ‘the moderate armed opposition’ to kit with arms in the fight against the Islamic State.

The Syrian conflict at this stage will be best resolved by the use of force against the Islamic State and other extremist groups and political negotiation between the opposition and government. Seeing that the Syrian Opposition does not have control over the activities of the armed opposition (Free Syrian army) and that the armed Opposition in itself do have a concrete command structure, the sustenance of the regime of Bashar al-Assad becomes expedient for the survival and continuity of the Syrian state.

The Syrian people have suffered untold casualties destruction of their homeland and this has had a spiral effect on neighbouring countries. As such, the conflict should be resolved by pragmatic means at this stage forgiving past misdeeds.