Resolving Al-Shabaab's Menace in Kenya

"Our territorial integrity is threatened with serious security threats of terrorism. We cannot allow this to happen at all............ It means we are now going to pursue the enemy, who are the al-Shabaab, to wherever they will be, even in their country," Kenya's Internal Security Minister George Saitoti (2011)

The shooting spree that left about 147 people dead at Kenya’s Garissa University imbued the trade mark of an Al-Shabaab terrorist attack. Being the latest, Kenya has experienced several notable, including the Nairobi Westgate Shopping Mall attack of September 2013.

Bodies of slain students strewn at a Hostel in Kenya's Garissa University
Source:buzzkenya.com/kenyan-university-attack-victims-bodies-still-on-school-ground-face-down-and-shot-in-back-of-head/

Bordered by a politically unstable neighbour which is referred to in some quarters as the ‘World’s eternal headache’, Somalia is home to the notorious Al-Shabaab movement, which thrives there no thanks to the lack of an effective central government authority since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991.

A divided Somalia with different spheres of control
Source:http://springtimeofnations.blogspot.com/2012/10/northern-mali-and-gates-of-hell-flemish.html

Ever since the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998, Kenya has become a high-risk target for terrorist attacks, and it has since then experienced several.

The Al-Shabaab (Arabic word for ‘the youth’) movement grew from the ashes of what was left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) that sought to establish central authority in Somalia in 2005. Fearing radical Islamic expansionism owing to the declaration of Sharia law and a defacto Islamic Caliphate by the ICU, their reign was cut short by an Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006 with the motive of curtailing a renewed secessionist agitation of Ethiopian Somalis in Ethiopia’s Ogaden province and buoyed by US fears of an Al Queda haven in Somalia.

Upon the dismantlement of the ICU, it was hoped that the internationally backed TFG (Transitional Federal Government) formed to centrally administer Somalia in 2004 but based in Kenya (due to security issues) would assume and begin to assert governmental authority in Somalia. Not even the transfer of the seat of the TFG from Kenya to Mogadishu could win the hearts of the dismantled ICU. Though some warlords and ICU members joined the TFG, greater members of the youth wing of the ICU transmuted to form the Al-Shabaab movement, whose mission was to neutralize and abolish the authority of the TFG and drive out foreign forces backing the TFG from Somali soil.

Meleed in the ensuing conflict orchestrated by Al-Shabaab, refugees poured into Kenyan soil and were sheltered at Dadaab. Following the commitment of the Burundian and Ugandan governments to send troops to Somalia to back the TFG in the fight for territorial control against Al-Shabaab, the movement launched its first attack outside Somali soil in the bombing of a football viewing centre in Kampala (Uganda’s capital) during the 2010 world cup final match.

The renewed outpour of Somali refugees into Kenya was also accompanied by diffused incursions of Al-Shabaab into Kenyan territory, a result of which saw an increase in the occurrence of kidnappings of foreigners in North Eastern Kenya.

Tourism is a key industry in Kenya, and Nairobi is a host to a significant UN presence, including many international and local NGOs involved in humanitarian relief and other activities; there were increased concerns about the Kidnapping trend, especially when several Europeans were seized in the Lamu area in September and October 2011, a resultant which hit the tourism industry hard. The last straw was when two Spanish aid workers with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) were kidnapped in the Dadaab refugee camp near the Kenya-Somalia border on 13th October 2011. After this incident, the Kenyan government ordered a full-scale invasion of Somalia with the aim of neutralizing Al-Shabaab and creating a buffer zone by establishing an autonomous Somali government in the Juba/Shebelle region to act as a defensive bulwark against cross-border incursions by Al-Shabaab in Northern Kenya. For this Kenyan initiative, the country became a target for Al-Shabaab attacks ever since, and the Garissa mass killing is one of several such.

The proposed Kenyan buffer sphere of influence in Somalia
Source: blog.crisisgroup.org/africa/2013/05/21/jubaland-in-jeopardy-the-uneasy-path-to-state-building-in-somalia/

Neutralizing guerrilla insurgency has been a hard task to accomplish by the best of the world’s armies; as such, the Kenyan Al-Shabaab experience is not a new phenomenon.

Neutralizing the Al-Shabaab menace will essentially entail proffering a permanent solution to the Somali problem. The age-long regional mistrust that bore the Kenya-Ethiopia defence pact of 1964  intrinsically targetting Somalia must be brought to bear to include Somalia in the fray. Regional powers of East Africa should respect Somalia’s distinctive ethno-religious identity, which places Islam at the centre of Somali culture. Thus, any Somali government must include all factions with minimal influence from regional powers. Only then will Somalia’s Al-Shabaab stop being a regional menace.

THE INTRICASIES OF A MALIAN ‘AZAWADSTAN’ ; A RALLYING CALL FOR IMMEDIATE INTERVENTION

"Everyone knew this situation was coming; everyone knew that AQIM was present in the region; everyone knew that the Tuareg rebellion from 2008 in Mali had not been decapitated. And yet the Malians did not act."....... Bazoum Mohammed, Niger's foreign minister.        

The situation in Northern Mali, where a rebellion by Tuaregs and Islamic Militants declared a ‘liberated Azawad’ in the North of Mali and then pushed to the government-controlled South, has alarmed the international community, particularly France. From the dust raised in the recent clash between the Malian Military and extremist Islamic Militant groups, top of which is the ‘Ansar Dine and Mujao’, both are thought to be part of an extensive network of Al-Queda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)- though having different ideologies as against the Tuareg rebels of Northern Mali,  the rebellious forces united for a cause---‘shaking off Northern Mali or Azawad from Malian control’.

The vast arid North of Mali (an area the size of France) is covered by the Sahara and is populated by the Tuaregs (a nomadic people who live in Mali, Algeria, Libya, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger). Seen as light-skinned (though they are called the ‘blue people’), they’ve complained of marginalization in their respective countries of residence. As such, the Tuaregs have fought several rebellious wars against the government of Niger, Algeria and Mali.

Despite the separatist intrigues of the Tuaregs in the Sahara, their rebellions have been quelled by force and negotiations over the years by the respective governments they rebelled against. However, a statement made by the foreign minister of Niger at the recent Bamako summit in October 2012 hosted to resolve the Malian crises shows that all is not well with Mali, especially the city that hosts the tomb of 333 saints (Timbuktu)! Even her neighbours are alarmed by this dawning, gruelling fact.

The rebel-held Azawad or Northern Mali is already at a phase of derelict lawlessness, and there are fears that it may become Africa’s Afghanistan or Pakistan’s Swat valley…hence the name ‘Azawadstan’!

Among the issues calling for action in Northern Mali are:

      The clash between Tuareg separatist rebels  (MNLA) and Islamist militants. Though having variant ideologies, these groups united to kick out the Malian army from Azawad.

      The destruction of ‘mausoleums’ and tombs of Islamic scholars in Timbuktu—is regarded as a world heritage site by the UN.

      The unhindered operation of Islamic militant groups, especially (Al Queda in the Islamic Maghreb) who are turning Northern Mali into a base or training facility for launching attacks in neighbouring states.

      Most concerned is the Nigerien government, which fears that the Malian instability might just precipitate in their country and serve as a distillery for instability in the West African Subregion.

      The recent capture of Diabaly and the attack on Konna by the Islamist militants thus putting Bamako (the Malian capital) and the remaining government-controlled areas at risk of being united under one ‘Azawadstan.’

Intriguingly, the Malian crises do have some foreign undertones. It is believed to be heightened by the influx of Tuareg fighters from Libya who fought on the side of the defeated Gaddafi loyalist forces during the 2011 Libyan revolution. Surely, the Libyan conflict did not end cheaply. The proliferation of weapons during the conflict must have added to the lethal force of the Tuareg and Islamic separatist forces.

With hard lessons still being learnt from the Pakistani and Afghanistan situation, there’s a concern that the Malian case will not fall in that line.

There have been calls for an Ecowas military intervention force to liberate Northern Mali as any attempt to allow for an ‘Azawadstan’ may spark Tuareg separatist conflicts in other neighbouring countries and most the most chilling terrorist attacks in the West African subregion and even Europe!. Bearing in mind that Al-Queda-linked groups hold sway in the territory, there’s an onus to restore sanity to the rebellious territory.

The Malian North, which is a vast expanse of Sahara, may not be familiar territory for any Ecowas intervention force. Moreover, there will be a need for logistical air support from Western powers—a cause that France is spearheading. With the Islamist militants now pushing towards Bamako, the French President has acceded to demands by the Malian Prime minister for help in the face of the ignominious defeat suffered by the Malian army in the hands of the rebels. The swift response of the French has thus encouraged a mobilization of West African forces to counter the activities of the Malian Islamists.

With the international scene wary of foreign intervention in crises-ridden countries, whilst contention cannot be agreed on Syria, the world cannot afford to watch a helpless and hapless Malian regime turn into Azawadstan!