Nigeria: Beyond the 2015 elections

The year 2015 was approached with much trepidation in the hearts of Nigerians. It seemed doomsday loomed following forecasts by a United States diplomat in 2011 that the Country will cease to exist as a unified Nation by the end of the year 2015. This forecast was made more sinister as Boko Haram Islamist insurgents began seizing and holding territory in the North East for the first time since the beginning of their five year insurrective activity; as the Nigerian army melted into defensive positions, retreating in tactical manoeuvres, the ragtag Boko Haram movement evinced invincibility and defiance against the Nigerian government.

Omininous description of a disintegrated National insignia
Source: Unknown

More ominous still was the impending 2015 general elections which hung as a Sword of Damocles on the continuous existentence of the corporate entity of Nigeria’s nationhood. With ethnic and religious sentiments whipped to the heights, it was thought the 2015 elections would begin the defoliation process of Nigeria’s nationhood.

The elections though postponed came and went alongside its attendant mudslinging calumnous lavish campaigns, and what seemed an April’s fool’s joke turned to be a National reality as the major Opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari was declared winner of the March 28th presidential elections in the early hours of 1st April 2015. This was a rude shock to the governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP) who had until this time never lost at the presidential polls since its founding in 1998. It had once declared that it will continue to govern the centre for 60years.

In the face of this new trend, all was calm and the acceptance of defeat by the incumbent PDP candidate Goodluck Jonathan in a congratulatory call to the major opposition candidate assuaged all threats of instability by muscling political gladiators.

A comic relief to the change of the baton of governance

By attendant fate, the victory of Muhammadu Buhari at the presidential polls has charted a new course in Nigeria’s journey to Nationalistic Eldorado. Whilst the opposition bask in the euphoria of its thumping victory over the governing PDP, current issues bedevilling the Nation will spank thoughts for immediate action once the government settles into power come 29th May. Over the last week of the Jonathan regime these issues have been brought to bear such as:

1.     A seeming resurgent Boko Haram: though the army in series of territorial control reverses claimed to have nipped the insurgents, not even the clearance of their Sambisa forest camps have evacuated their threat. The insurgents have recently begun another round of murderous rampage and seizing towns and villages around the Lake Chad. With the whereabouts of its leader Abubakar Shekau still unclear, the incoming government will have to seal the fate of the insurgency as soon as possible, once and for all.

2.     Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of the North East: the suave of the Boko Haram insurgency has taken a toll on normal life in Bornu, Yobe and Adamawa States. Over a million people have been rendered homeless and hundreds of thousands are still camped in internal displaced camps. Schools remained shut, government infrastructure in those areas are destroyed. The onus lies on the incoming government to rehabilitate the peoples and infrastructure of this zone in order to avert a humanitarian generational disaster.

3.     Curbing the menace of Fulani herdsmen: The rife murderous menace of nomadic Fulani herdsmen especially across the middle belt States of Nassarrawa, Taraba, Benue and Plateau is giving a cause for alarm. Perhaps, it was because of this sinister trepidation peoples of this area overwhelmingly voted for the PDP candidate Goodluck Jonathan against Muhammadu Buhari who himself a Fulani was seen as a protagonist for their murderous nomadic Fulani visitors. The incoming president should wield his ethnic influence in settling this matter once and for all. In this day and age of technological advancement, ranching should be the in thing and not nomadic herding.

4.     Energy Crises: this is another harsh reality the incoming government should be awakened to. Just in the last week of the Jonathan government, power generation dropped to its lowest ebb of just over 1000MW! This was made more sinister by the scarcity of petrol and diesel. Though past regimes have tried and failed woefully in this respect, the new regime will have to buoy and brace itself for tangible action in this regard. Harnessing gas reserves, making local refineries functional are germane issues in this regard.

5.     Corruption: So much has been said as to what defines corruption during the Jonathan regime. Stealing is not corruption has been the hallucinating remonstrance. In any case, both stealing and corruption are vices to be curbed in governance, but how it will be fought is an issue for the new regime to decide. Nevertheless, a pragmatic approach devoid of vendetta which will clog the wheels of governance should be avoided.

6.     Electoral Campaign reforms: The last elections went down as the costliest ever Africa wide. Whilst campaigns don’t come cheap, it is heart rendering to note the millions of Naira that go into purchase of nomination forms and buying over of delegates. This has in no doubt carved a niche for political business as elected officials will seek to embezzle to recoup for their campaign expenditure. Whilst the Jonathan regime must be applauded for electoral reforms, the Buhari regime should seek to be applauded for electoral campaign reforms. Cutting down on the cost of governance and making salaries and allowances of government officials unattractive is also an issue to be tackled in this regard.

In all, the Nigerian problem is a hydra headed plethoric monster that requires wisdom to take on. Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts. May the new regime find such to advance the cause of the Nigerian project.

Wishing the incoming Buhari regime Goodluck!
 Long live the Federal republic of Nigeria!

Is Nigeria Tearing Itself Apart?

After years of Military rule, Nigeria clawed back her path to democratic governance in 1999 and for the first time in her history, there have been three successive democratic transitions without Military intervention. Though marred by electoral irregularities, political assassination and post election violence, the Nigerian democratic model is seen as that which is growing from the nascent stage of teething pains to the part of maturity.

Political map of Nigeria

Source: http://newsrescue.com/100-years-100-interesting-facts-nigeria/#axzz3RZNTHPSy

Based on the American Presidential system of government, the Nigerian government is tailored to the Federal System of government with a two term limit of four years each for the executive arm, and an unlimited four year term for the legislative arm. With a skewed Federal system concentrating central power on the executive, the elections for executive posts (Presidential and gubernatorial) are seen as a ‘do or die’ affair. The matter is not helped with the juicy pecuniary emolument attached to political posts coupled with the power to issue contracts which is usually a drain pipe to loot public funds; politics is seen as a worthy full time career/business venture.

Another divisive factor used as a political tool is religion and ethnicity. To the North of the Niger/Benue Rivers, the population is predominantly Muslim and unified by the Hausa language; though still ethnically diverse, the influence of the defunct Sokoto Caliphate which ruled the area during pre-colonial times is still felt and that accounts for the unifying language and religion. Nevertheless, there are pockets of highland areas untouched by the Jihad thus having different ethno-religious mix up. Such areas like Jos, Southern Kaduna being religious/cultural islands (mostly Christianity) differing from their predominantly Muslim Hausa/Fulani neighbours.

South of the Niger-Benue trough to the West, the population is predominantly Yoruba and their religious leaning is a near equal balance of Christianity and Islam albeit mixed with a deep affinity for cultural and indigenous belief/bond. To the East of the Niger River, the population is predominantly of the Igbo ethnic stock and the Niger Delta is awash with an agglomeration of several ethnic leanings, though the Ijaw ethnic group is dominant. Christianity is the dominant religion in this part of the country.

Nigeria’s ethnic diversity

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31101351

Such is the diverse polarity of Nigeria’s ethno-religious mix, making the ethnic/religious leaning of any political aspirant a first point of question. As such, major political parties in Nigeria are cognizant of this so if for example a political aspirant is Christian, his/her running mate must be Muslim. If He/she is from the South, the running mate must be from the North. This principle is referred to as zoning and though it is the constitutional agreement of the ruling PDP (People’s Democratic Party), such norm is widely accepted in the national political consciousness as politically correct.

This has enhanced the deep mistrust along tribal and religious lines especially betwixt the North and South. The North is seen to be politically dominant having produced 8 of Nigeria’s 12 rulers since independence who have spent a combined 30yrs of 54yrs of independence in power.

Agglomerated by British colonial rule, the fault lines in Nigeria’s political make up was evident during the pogrom of the Igbo’s in the North after the first coup d’etat in 1966 which led to a 30month civil war. Ever since, there has been no stop to bloodletting in pockets of sporadic ethnoreligious violence in Northern cities of Kano, Kaduna, Bauchi etc each time targeting Christians and Southerners (either Christian or Muslim). It is however sad to note that after such riots, no master minder/perpetrator is brought to book. This has fuelled suspicion and mistrust conjuring insinuations that the government (at those times controlled by Northerners) where behind the violence.

With the advent of democracy in 1999, power shifted to the south as Ex-Military ruler, Gen. Obasanjo won the presidential elections. His advent to power was seen as power balance after 20 contiguous years of Military rule albeit by Northerners. He went on to rule for two terms and made attempts to push for a third term which was thwarted. The North/South ethno religious mistrust continued to fester during his rule as some governors of Northern states sued for sharia law in their domain. With the Presidency powerless to stop the trend, the entrenched mistrust cascaded into riots in Northern Christian enclaves of Jos and its environs.

Aside, ethno-religious violence, Nigeria’s peace has been taunted by the rise of militancy. This is a resultant of politicians arming thugs to intimidate their opponents and then abandoning or refusing to mop up arms given to these thugs after elections. These actions fuelled the ferocity and menace of the Niger Delta militants in the Niger Delta and Boko Haram in the North East.

The Niger Delta after a long agitation for resource control has produced the Country’s current president in Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and, this has helped to quell the activities of the Militants. However, with elections around the corner and the president intending to run for a second term, there have been associated excerbated fears in the National polity viz:

1.     A prominent Niger Delta militant leader, Asari Dokubo have issued a threat that the President either wins the election or not return home as the President must exhaust all available term limit.

2.     There are fears that elections may not hold in some parts of the North East where Boko Haram’s activities are ferocious thus granting illegitimacy to any planned elections.

3.     Security fears have made elections to be postponed from February 14th to March 28 with the intention that the army would have recaptured territories occupied by Boko Haram.

4.     There are innate fears that the elections might not even hold at all with the premise that: If the army could not contain Boko Haram in the last 6 years, how would they in 6 weeks? This might cause a constitutional crisis if the transition programme is thwarted.

5.     The outburst of Militants and opposition leaders threatening war or forming a parallel government casts a shadow of impending violence on the Nation.

Ultimately, the fear is this: If President Jonathan looses at the polls, the Niger Delta militants might begin violence which entails bursting oil pipelines, kidnapping of oil workers all of which will shut down oil production which is the main stay of the economy.

A win for President Jonathan might ignite post election violence in the North and with a delicate security balance unlike 2011;  the security forces might have their hands full in that regard.

Every Nigerian knows what the permutations are and in the end the resilient spirit will wear on, but some lives will be lost and life will go on till another political transition period when the same cycle will be repeated.