Turkey: Standing Firm on Thin Ropes

Amid the drooling chaos in the endless contiguous conflict situations spiralling across the Middle East; from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the raging civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen; the international community stands perplexed at simmering thoughts of an additional unstable country within that region. With nearly all Middle Eastern countries having an intriguing stake in the belligerent activity across the region, and somewhat at a risk of conflagrating into violence, the recent situation in Turkey stands out in the perplexing Middle East conflict intrigues.

Straddling between Europe and Asia, and a heritage of the last Great Empire of the which controlled the Middle East in the Ottoman Empire, Turkey stands as a physical bridge and buffer between Europe and Asia; and between the ‘West’ and ‘East’.

After long enjoying long relative peaceful spells in her dual relations with the ‘West’ and ‘East’ and even Israel (A country which most Muslim Countries hold an unending animosity with), the turn of the decade flayed cracks on a seeming perfect multi-bloc relationship Turkey had long maintained.

First it was with Israel after the Gaza flotilla incident of May 2010 in which 10 Turkish activists were killed by Israeli troops; Turkey severed diplomatic relations with Israel after that incident. Then the onset of the Syrian Civil War smouldering from the Arab Spring in 2011.  After initial fence sitting on the crises, the Turkish position moved from passive to active opposition of the Government as initially highlighted from downing incidents of Syrian Jets by Turkey and vice versa in 2014 and 2012. And then came incidences with Russia November 2015 when the Turkish air force downed two Russian jets supporting the Syrian government’s war effort in an alleged accusation of encroaching its air space; this incident of course attracted sanctions from Russia which threatened to ground Turkish businesses in the tourism and construction sector.

A resurgence of Kurdish separatism especially borne under the auspices of an alleged tacit Turkish support for Jihadist rebel groups in Syria who in turn simmered instability in parts of Turkey via suicide bombings, and Turkish wariness of an autonomous Kurdish armed entity in Syria, raised the flares of instability within Turkey via armed attacks against the Turkish State by the PKK.

On the political front, the governing AKP struggled to consolidate a majority government in the last elections after surviving electoral scares from the pro-Kurdish HDP in preceding elections. In a firm attempt to stamp political authority, the governing AKP led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to purge dissenting voices especially from Fethullah Gulen an ex-ally, and from within the Military who have long been touted as the protector of Turkish Democracy and guardian of Ataturk’s ideals. This has set the Turkish government at odds in its long sought bid for EU membership. Though some concessions have been reached in recent times following the Turkish-EU agreement over the Syrian refugee crises, it all seems to be under threat following a backlash with EU ideals and Turkish local policies. In fact, all seemed to be coming to a bridgehead following the botched Coup d’état of 15th July.

Turkish Civilians flogging surrendered Coupist on the Bosphorus Bridge
Source: bbcnews.com

Recognizing her strategic importance in the Middle East and as the Eastern frontier Bastion of the NATO Western military alliance, and considering the inundation by Syrian refugees from the neighbouring Syrian conflict; and potential Military isolation by her NATO allies in its recent standoff with Russia whose sanctions thudded economic savagery, Turkey has begun to repair its relationship fault lines consequential from its recent foreign policy which seemed to negate the Kemalist ideals of ‘Peace at home and peace in the World’.

Caricature of US based Turkish Cleric, Fethulah Gulen, The acclaimed villain of recent Turkish political squabbles
Source: bbcnews.com

First in the foreign relation restoration drive in June was Israel, followed by an apology to Russia over the November 2015 jet downing incident and then extension of the olive branch to the Assad led Syrian Government after severing diplomatic ties in 2011.

"We normalised relations with Russia and Israel. I'm sure we will normalise relations with Syria as well. For the fight against terrorism to succeed, stability needs to return to Syria and Iraq."..... Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim

Turkey has forged the progressive path in normalizing relations with Countries which it has had recent diplomatic spats with. This progressive diplomatic gains seem to be clogged by recent internal political squabbles thus casting a shadow on recent diplomatic reconciliations in the international front.

Ultimately, the ‘pull’ and ‘push’ forces throbbing the soul of Turkish polity will have to resonate to an acceptable equilibrium to help the current Turkish Government maintain foundational Kemalist principles and retain her strategic role as a physical bridge and buffer of the global bipolar world.